Archive

Tag Archives: KC Chiefs

Last Week: 8-8. My Entire Life: 53-49-3.

Hallelujah, all rejoice, for the 2013-14 NFL Playoffs have arrived at last! A quick note: I will be writing another bonus post, featuring all of my thoughts, emotions, and spiritual beliefs about the 49rs-Packers game on Sunday (which I will be attending, thanks to the profound kindness of some Packers fans friends). This game is just too much everything for me right now, and there’s no way I could not devote an entire post to it. The over-under on the word length for my entire experience is about 4,000 words right now; let me know if you’d like to place bets.

Anyway, here are the rest of my predictions (against the spread, naturally) for the upcoming Wildcard Round. As always, lines from Sportsbook.com; home team in CAPS.

The Kansas City Football Team (+1.5) over COLTS

I actually think Indy might be a little better, and have a higher ceiling. They did beat the Seahawks, Broncos, 49ers, and… oh, right, Kansas City! In Kansas City, no less. At that point, Kansas City didn’t have a whole lot to play for, but still. But then there’s the Kansas City defense.

Saints (+2.5) over EAGLES

I dunno…. taking another road team? I just… yeah. The Eagles defense is bad. The Saints defense is better. Drew Brees… Sean Peyton… greater than Nick Foles, Chip Kelly, right? Maybe? The Eagles do have a good offensive line… I’m going to be pretty upset if the Saints lose this game by three points, is what I’m saying.

BENGALS (-7) over Chargers

They’ve won big a few times… Philip Rivers is having a great season… Time for Andy Dalton to show off on national television? San Diego’s defense is the defense to do it against? I would feel a lot better if Geno Atkins and Leon Hall hadn’t gone out for the season. But the Bengals are due for a postseason win right? Maybe? Or they’re just good, not elite, and Marvin Lewis will be another good coach that gets fired because his team keeps losing in the playoffs?

Alright, that’s how I’m feeling right now, so far as the first three games. As I said, I’ll be back tomorrow with most likely a mega-post (perhaps a meta-post?) detailing all the things I’ve already gone through regarding this 49ers-Packers game, including a picture of me holding all twelve hand-warmers I bought today! Stay tuned.

I embarked on a pretty sweet mini-project today, if I do say so myself. It starts with a couple of… “problems” that had been nagging me, regarding the lack of use of football’s Pythagorean formula. Pythagorean wins (or winning percentage) have been showing up in NFL analysis for, I dunno, at least a few years now. I learned of them in a Bill Barnwell preseason piece before the 2012 NFL Season (on Grantland.com). A team’s Pythagorean winning percentage (PW%) is as follows:
PW% = (Points Scored ^ 2.37) / {(Points Scored ^ 2.37) + (Points Allowed ^ 2.37)}1
Say the Bengals and Browns are both 8-8. The Bengals blew out their opponents in their eight wins, and lost narrowly in their eight losses, while the Browns won narrowly in their wins and lost big in their losses. You probably agree that even with the same record, the Bengals are likely better than the Browns. PW% is a measure of how much.

What’s bothered me is that Pythagorean analysis usually stops there: with a team’s points scored and points allowed. But one could apply the same analysis to a group of teams, say the 49ers’ opponents in the 2013 season, and determine that group’s PW%. Then one would know how tough the 49ers’ competition had been this year, beyond simple wins and losses. And, instead of using this year’s record as a strength of schedule statistic for next year’s season, one could use it for this very season itself, adding context to those final standings. We don’t have to just assume that all ten-win teams are equally skilled (or that they aren’t); we can quantify other useful metrics and see if there’s any evidence for our assumptions. And that’s exactly what I’ve done. For all 32 teams, and all 13 of their opponents, through 15 games.2 Let’s take a look!

First off, we have our sin-context base, nothing but the ‘W’s:

Rank Team W W%
1 SEA 12 80.00%
1 DEN 12 80.00%
3 SF 11 78.57%
4 CAR 11 73.33%
4 KC 11 73.33%
4 NE 11 73.33%
7 CIN 10 66.67%
7 NO 10 66.67%
7 ARI 10 66.67%
7 IND 10 66.67%
11 PHI 9 60.00%
12 SD 8 53.33%
12 DAL 8 53.33%
12 MIA 8 53.33%
12 BAL 8 53.33%
12 CHI 8 53.33%
17 GB 7.5 50.00%
18 DET 7 46.67%
18 STL 7 46.67%
18 PIT 7 46.67%
18 NYJ 7 46.67%
22 TEN 6 40.00%
22 BUF 6 40.00%
22 NYG 6 40.00%
25 MIN 4.5 30.00%
26 ATL 4 28.57%
27 TB 4 26.67%
27 CLE 4 26.67%
27 OAK 4 26.67%
27 JAC 4 26.67%
31 WAS 3 20.00%
32 HOU 2 13.33%

Alright. Mostly, all that’s good for is figuring out who gets the first pick in the draft. Let’s add some context. Here are the same figures, for Pythagorean wins:

Rank Team Pythagorean Wins PW%
1 SEA 11.9 79.17%
2 CAR 11.1 74.18%
3 SF 10.9 72.95%
4 DEN 10.8 71.88%
5 KC 10.7 71.05%
6 CIN 10.2 68.02%
7 NO 9.7 64.90%
8 NE 9.7 64.62%
9 ARI 9.0 60.29%
10 PHI 8.8 58.76%
11 SD 8.6 57.65%
12 IND 8.4 56.01%
13 DET 8.0 53.18%
14 DAL 7.7 51.29%
15 STL 7.6 50.35%
16 PIT 7.4 49.34%
17 MIA 7.4 49.05%
18 GB 7.1 47.58%
19 BAL 7.1 47.14%
20 CHI 6.9 46.16%
21 TEN 6.9 45.88%
22 BUF 6.6 43.86%
23 MIN 5.6 37.58%
24 ATL 5.4 36.32%
25 TB 5.4 35.76%
26 CLE 5.4 35.68%
27 OAK 4.9 32.53%
28 NYG 4.8 31.94%
29 WAS 4.7 31.19%
30 NYJ 4.6 30.79%
31 HOU 3.9 26.17%
32 JAC 3.1 20.58%

Now Carolina and San Francisco appear a little bit better than Denver; Jacksonville still has a firm grip on last place, in the Pythagorean world. Curious how these little differences do add up and do affect rankings. You can get an idea of how teams landed where they did by checking out their point totals, presented here, in order of most net points through the 15 games so far:

Rank Team Net Points PF PF Rank PA PA Rank
1 DEN 187 572 1 385 22
2 SEA 168 390 8 222 2
3 SF 131 383 10 252 3
4 KC 128 406 6 278 4
5 CAR 124 345 19 221 1
6 CIN 108 396 7 288 6
7 NE 92 410 5 318 9
8 NO 85 372 13 287 5
9 PHI 58 418 2 360 16
9 ARI 58 359 16 301 7
11 SD 45 369 14 324 11
12 IND 35 361 15 326 12
13 DET 20 382 11 362 17
14 DAL 9 417 3 408 25
15 STL 2 339 20 337 13
16 PIT -4 359 16 363 18
17 MIA -5 310 24 315 8
18 BAL -15 303 26 318 9
19 GB -16 384 9 400 24
20 TEN -25 346 18 371 19
21 CHI -28 417 3 445 30
22 BUF -35 319 23 354 15
23 TB -76 271 29 347 14
24 CLE -85 301 27 386 23
25 ATL -89 333 21 422 29
26 MIN -90 377 12 467 32
27 NYG -103 274 28 377 20
28 NYJ -110 270 30 380 21
29 OAK -111 308 25 419 27
30 WAS -130 328 22 458 31
31 HOU -146 266 31 412 26
32 JAC -182 237 32 419 27

Those are the inputs. And the outputs? Subtracting actual wins from Pythagorean wins, we reveal how many “lucky” wins (or losses) each team has:

Rank Team W – PW W PW
1 NYJ 2.4 7 4.6
2 IND 1.6 10 8.4
3 NE 1.3 11 9.7
4 DEN 1.2 12 10.8
5 NYG 1.2 6 4.8
6 CHI 1.1 8 6.9
7 ARI 1.0 10 9.0
8 BAL 0.9 8 7.1
9 JAC 0.9 4 3.1
10 MIA 0.6 8 7.4
11 GB 0.4 7.5 7.1
12 KC 0.3 11 10.7
13 DAL 0.3 8 7.7
14 NO 0.3 10 9.7
15 PHI 0.2 9 8.8
16 SEA 0.1 12 11.9
17 SF 0.1 11 10.9
18 CAR -0.1 11 11.1
19 CIN -0.2 10 10.2
20 PIT -0.4 7 7.4
21 STL -0.6 7 7.6
22 BUF -0.6 6 6.6
23 SD -0.6 8 8.6
24 OAK -0.9 4 4.9
24 TEN -0.9 6 6.9
26 DET -1.0 7 8.0
27 MIN -1.1 4.5 5.6
28 CLE -1.4 4 5.4
29 TB -1.4 4 5.4
30 ATL -1.4 4 5.4
31 WAS -1.7 3 4.7
32 HOU -1.9 2 3.9

The Jets have outperformed by more than two wins! And Rex Ryan still might get fired. Also, Jacksonville’s good luck has ruined formerly promising chances of getting the first pick in the draft, as likely they’ll instead see it go to Houston. It’s really Houston that has performed better, losing by significantly fewer points, albeit more often. Well, perhaps Houston’s competition was much easier? Or perhaps not? You don’t have to wonder, let’s see! Here are the teams ranked by the average net points of their opponents, adjusted by removing totals from games against the team in question.3

Tm Rk O Nt Pts /Gm O PF /Gm Rk O PA /Gm Rk
DET 1 -338 -1.64 5,043 24.48 23 5,381 26.12 3
GB 2 -304 -1.48 5,047 24.50 24 5,351 25.98 4
PHI 3 -282 -1.37 5,106 24.79 27 5,388 26.16 2
KC 4 -279 -1.35 5,118 24.84 28 5,397 26.20 1
CHI 5 -259 -1.26 4,964 24.10 19 5,223 25.35 10
BAL 6 -216 -1.05 5,105 24.78 26 5,321 25.83 6
PIT 7 -211 -1.02 4,859 23.59 11 5,070 24.61 14
BUF 8 -179 -0.87 4,539 22.03 1 4,718 22.90 23
DAL 10 -177 -0.86 5,140 24.95 29 5,317 25.81 7
CIN 9 -177 -0.86 4,934 23.95 16 5,111 24.81 12
OAK 11 -176 -0.85 4,979 24.17 22 5,155 25.02 11
CLE 12 -129 -0.63 4,883 23.70 13 5,012 24.33 15
NYJ 13 -89 -0.43 4,722 22.92 4 4,811 23.35 19
NE 14 -84 -0.41 4,679 22.71 2 4,763 23.12 20
SD 15 -56 -0.27 5,195 25.22 30 5,251 25.49 8
MIN 16 -28 -0.14 5,048 24.50 25 5,076 24.64 13
JAC 17 -1 0.00 4,912 23.84 15 4,913 23.85 16
DEN 18 15 0.07 4,833 23.46 9 4,818 23.39 17
TEN 19 29 0.14 4,846 23.52 10 4,817 23.38 18
WAS 20 78 0.38 5,417 26.30 31 5,339 25.92 5
SEA 21 81 0.39 4,783 23.22 5 4,702 22.83 24
SF 22 109 0.53 4,808 23.34 6 4,699 22.81 25
MIA 23 127 0.62 4,823 23.41 7 4,696 22.80 26
CAR 24 161 0.78 4,829 23.44 8 4,668 22.66 27
ATL 25 208 1.01 4,701 22.82 3 4,493 21.81 32
HOU 26 220 1.07 4,969 24.12 21 4,749 23.05 21
IND 27 222 1.08 4,967 24.11 20 4,745 23.03 22
STL 28 255 1.24 4,902 23.80 14 4,647 22.56 28
NYG 29 328 1.59 5,571 27.04 32 5,243 25.45 9
ARI 30 333 1.62 4,871 23.65 12 4,538 22.03 30
NO 31 361 1.75 4,954 24.05 17 4,593 22.30 29
TB 32 458 2.22 4,961 24.08 18 4,503 21.86 31

You see, there’s really quite a difference. Buffalo’s opponents, in games not against Buffalo, scored an average of 22.03 a game; five points a game fewer than the unfortunate New York Giants, who went up against all four top offenses in the league, two of them (Philadelphia and Dallas) twice! Notice Washington is down there too; teams in the same division tend to clump together, as 75% of their opponents are in common. Kansas City played the worst defenses overall (through 15 games), while Atlanta faced the toughest. All in all, Detroit’s opponents, in games not against Detroit, lost by 1.64 points on average, while Tampa Bay’s opponents won by 2.22 points, nearly a four-point swing between extremes.

Putting it all together, these are the Pythagorean winning percentages of the opponents of all thirty-two teams, along with the PW% of the team itself. The difference, which I quite originally dub “Relative Performance” (actual PW% minus expected PW% given those opponents), indicates how well a team fared against its competition, relative to other teams against the same opponents.

Team Rank Relative Performance Opp. PW% Rank Expected PW% Actual PW%
SEA 1 30.19% 51.01% 21 48.99% 79.17%
CAR 2 26.19% 52.01% 24 47.99% 74.18%
SF 3 24.31% 51.36% 22 48.64% 72.95%
DEN 4 22.06% 50.18% 18 49.82% 71.88%
NO 5 19.37% 54.47% 31 45.53% 64.90%
KC 6 17.90% 46.86% 4 53.14% 71.05%
CIN 7 15.93% 47.91% 9 52.09% 68.02%
ARI 8 14.48% 54.19% 30 45.81% 60.29%
NE 9 13.56% 48.95% 14 51.05% 64.62%
IND 10 8.72% 52.71% 27 47.29% 56.01%
SD 11 7.01% 49.36% 15 50.64% 57.65%
PHI 12 5.58% 46.82% 3 53.18% 58.76%
STL 13 3.51% 53.16% 28 46.84% 50.35%
MIA 14 0.63% 51.58% 23 48.42% 49.05%
DET 15 -0.65% 46.16% 1 53.84% 53.18%
DAL 16 -0.71% 48.00% 11 52.00% 51.29%
PIT 17 -3.17% 47.48% 6 52.52% 49.34%
TEN 18 -3.77% 50.36% 19 49.64% 45.88%
BAL 19 -5.31% 47.55% 7 52.45% 47.14%
GB 20 -5.88% 46.54% 2 53.46% 47.58%
CHI 21 -6.85% 46.99% 5 53.01% 46.16%
BUF 22 -8.43% 47.71% 8 52.29% 43.86%
TB 23 -8.53% 55.71% 32 44.29% 35.76%
ATL 24 -11.00% 52.68% 25 47.32% 36.32%
MIN 25 -12.75% 49.67% 16 50.33% 37.58%
NYG 26 -14.47% 53.59% 29 46.41% 31.94%
CLE 27 -15.87% 48.46% 12 51.54% 35.68%
WAS 28 -17.95% 50.86% 20 49.14% 31.19%
OAK 29 -19.52% 47.94% 10 52.06% 32.53%
NYJ 30 -20.32% 48.89% 13 51.11% 30.79%
HOU 31 -21.15% 52.68% 26 47.32% 26.17%
JAC 32 -29.43% 49.99% 17 50.01% 20.58%

So take my 49ers. Their average opponent should expect to win 51.36% of their games not against the 49ers, but only 27.05% of their games against the 49ers.4 That difference, 24.31%, is the third largest in the league. GO NINERS! Only Carolina and Seattle have dominated more thoroughly, giving their opponents quite a whooping, much more so than their opponents receive from other teams. Kansas City, meanwhile, boasts a healthy 71.05 PW%; but against its crummy competition, other teams have been averaging a 53.14 PW% anyway, so it’s a little less impressive, knocking their relative performance to sixth in the league.

Oh, and check out the Jets! Further evidence that I was right when I declared that their 2013 campaign was quite impressive earlier this week. Other teams facing the Jets’ competition have a respectable 51.11 PW%; they outperform them over half the time. The Jets, meanwhile, only manage 30.79%, getting badly outperformed by mediocre teams. Ick. I should point out that by these measures, Tampa Bay had the toughest schedule, while Detroit had the easiest– and still missed the playoffs. Ouch.

Lastly, we’ll return to the “real” numbers, straight-up wins, side-by-side with their Pythagorean expectations. This post has been about context. Wins and losses mean different things in different contexts; a context of narrow defeats and blowout wins suggests a team is merely having some bad breaks, and inspires optimism; a context of blowout defeats and narrow wins indicates the opposite, and the tempering of future expectations. But context is only that: context. The real content, the wins and losses themselves, is what we care about. Here they are, side by side:

Team Rank W Expected PW Actual PW PW Over/Under Expected W Over/Under PW
SEA 1 12 7.3 11.9 4.5 0.1
DEN 1 12 7.5 10.8 3.3 1.2
CAR 3 11 7.2 11.1 3.9 -0.1
SF 3 11 7.3 10.9 3.6 0.1
KC 3 11 8.0 10.7 2.7 0.3
NE 3 11 7.7 9.7 2.0 1.3
NO 7 10 6.8 9.7 2.9 0.3
CIN 7 10 7.8 10.2 2.4 -0.2
ARI 7 10 6.9 9.0 2.2 1.0
IND 7 10 7.1 8.4 1.3 1.6
PHI 11 9 8.0 8.8 0.8 0.2
SD 12 8 7.6 8.6 1.1 -0.6
MIA 12 8 7.3 7.4 0.1 0.6
DAL 12 8 7.8 7.7 -0.1 0.3
BAL 12 8 7.9 7.1 -0.8 0.9
CHI 12 8 8.0 6.9 -1.0 1.1
GB 17 7.5 8.0 7.1 -0.9 0.4
STL 18 7 7.0 7.6 0.5 -0.6
DET 18 7 8.1 8.0 -0.1 -1.0
PIT 18 7 7.9 7.4 -0.5 -0.4
NYJ 18 7 7.7 4.6 -3.0 2.4
TEN 22 6 7.4 6.9 -0.6 -0.9
BUF 22 6 7.8 6.6 -1.3 -0.6
NYG 22 6 7.0 4.8 -2.2 1.2
MIN 25 4.5 7.5 5.6 -1.9 -1.1
TB 26 4 6.6 5.4 -1.3 -1.4
ATL 26 4 7.1 5.4 -1.6 -1.4
CLE 26 4 7.7 5.4 -2.4 -1.4
OAK 26 4 7.8 4.9 -2.9 -0.9
JAC 26 4 7.5 3.1 -4.4 0.9
WAS 31 3 7.4 4.7 -2.7 -1.7
HOU 32 2 7.1 3.9 -3.2 -1.9

  1. Multiply the % by the number of games played to obtain Pythagorean wins. You may then compare the number of Pythagorean wins to actual wins; if actual wins are greater, the team has been lucky, while if Pythagorean wins are greater, they’ve been unlucky. The two figures even out in the long run but may differ over short stretches. (Even a full sixteen game season. Sixteen games isn’t that many. You know they play 162 in baseball?) 
  2. Remember, teams play 16 games against 13 opponents because they play each team in their division twice; the last game of the season is always an intra-division match-up, so at the moment each team has played 15 games against 13 teams. 
  3. Sorry this chart’s headers are a little lacking; it was the only way I could get it to fit onto one page. It was either that or splitting it into three separate charts, which I thought worse. 
  4. 100% – San Francisco’s actual PW% of 72.95% = 27.05%. 

With Texans-Jaguars, or “The Rabid Feces in a Deep Fryer Bowl” as dubbed by Cousin Sal on this week’s B.S. Report, beginning the final quarter of the NFL season tonight on Thursday Night Football, it is time to move on with my continuing series, Economics and Sports Management Presents: The Search for the Best (& Worst) Contract in Football. Today I will investigate linebackers, grouping them (per Pro Football Focus) into three groups: outside linebackers in a 3-4, outside linebackers in a 4-3, and inside linebackers.

These are the Top 5 performing 3-4 outside linebackers through Week 13, who’ve played 25% or more of their teams’ snaps (PFF grade in parentheses):

  • 1. Justin Houston, KC (31.8)
  • 2. Elvis Dumervil, BAL (23.1)
  • 3. Robert Mathis, IND (23)
  • 4. Brian Orakpo, WAS & Trent Cole, PHI (16.2)

Also of note, despite missing six games in the middle of the season when he voluntarily entered a drug and alcohol rehabilitation facility, Aldon Smith of the San Francisco 49ers is tenth with a 10.3 grade. And these are the Bottom 5:

  • 37. Andy Mulumba, GB & Barkevious Mingo, CLE (-7.2)
  • 39. Quinton Coples, NYJ (-7.3)
  • 40. Mike Neal, GB (-8.6)
  • 41. Brooks Reed, HOU (-17.6)

Houston is firmly alone at the top, Reed is firmly alone at the bottom, and the average grade is a 4.2, with a standard deviation of 10.35. Here are the Top 5 paid 3-4 outside linebackers (average annual salary from Spotrac.com, in millions of dollars, in parentheses):

  • 1. Mario Williams, BUF ($16 million)
  • 2. Clay Matthews, GB ($11.628m)
  • 3. Tamba Hali, KC ($11.5m)
  • 4. Terrell Suggs, BAL ($10.417)
  • 5. Lamarr Woodley, PIT ($10.25)

None of these guys show up as worst performers, but none of them made the Top 5 either. As for the Bottom 5:

  • 37. Justin Houston, KC ($0.697m)
  • 38. Corey Lemonier, SF ($0.676m)
  • 39. Thomas Keiser, SD ($0.555m)
  • 40. Pernell McPhee, BAL ($0.546m)
  • 41. Andy Mulumba, GB ($0.497)

Houston, a third round pick in the 2011 draft, is one of the least paid outside linebackers among the league’s 3-4 defenses, yet has actually played the best this season. A good investment by the Chiefs. The average salary is $4 million, with a standard deviation of $3.845 million. Note that the $4 million average is about the same as the 4-3 defensive ends covered on Tuesday, who averaged $4.084 million, while 3-4 defensive ends averaged (“only”) $2.583 million.

You should not be surprised to see that as quarterbacks are the most expensive players, the most expensive defenders are those whose job it is to get to the quarterback. 3-4 linebackers, though they start the play standing up, have more in common with 4-3 defensive ends than with 4-3 outside linebackers. And among 3-4 linebackers, these are the Top 5 contracts (contract quality in parentheses):

  • 1. Justin Houston, KC (3.53)
  • 2. Brian Orakpo, WAS (1.68)
  • 3. Elvis Dumervil, BAL (1.51)
  • 4. Jerry Hughes, BUF (1.35)
  • 5. Jabaal Sheard, CLE (1.07)

And Houston leads by a mile! A second congratulations to Chiefs General Manager John Dorsey, who also has gotten the best fullback value this season out of Anthony Sherman. Brian Orakpo, on the last year of his rookie contract, also makes an appearance. The following are the Worst 5 contracts (so far):

  • 37. Barkevious Mingo, CLE (-1.12)
  • 38. Brooks Reed, HOU (-1.37)
  • 39. Paul Kruger, CLE (-1.52)
  • 40. Clay Matthews, GB (-2.35)
  • 41. Mario Williams, BUF (-2.49)

Mingo is a rookie, so he may improve, but he also comes pretty cheap, so it is discouraging to see him so far down. Most likely Clay Matthews would not be there if he had not missed four games in the middle of the season, but then in the eight games he has played he has only earned a 0.4 grade. Perhaps the injury is lingering. Mario Williams makes an average of $16 million a year. He does have the ninth best grade (10.7). Rams’ 4-3 defensive end Robert Quinn, excelling at a similar role, is worth approximately $19.5 million, based on his play this season. That is what you get when you outperform your position’s average grade by an incredible 52.56 units, and Williams needs to (out)perform at a similar level. A good, even a great performance just is not worth that much.

Moving onto the other defenses in the league, here are the Top 5 performing 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 1. Von Miller, DEN (30.9)
  • 2. Lavonte David, TB (16.6)
  • 3. Vontaze Burfict, CIN (15.8)
  • 4. Malcolm Smith, SEA (10.9)
  • 5. James Harrison, CIN (10.2)

Von Miller missed six games with a suspension. In half the games, he has put up twice the numbers of second-best Lavonte David. Offensive tackles beware! But for that suspension, he might have challenged J.J. Watt for Mr. Being-So-Much-Better-Than-Everyone-Else. As it is, still an impressive season, with games remaining. Here are the Bottom 5 performing 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 29. Bruce Carter, DAL (-8.6)
  • 30. JoLonn Dunbar, STL (-9.1)
  • 31. Philip Wheeler, MIA (-9.5)
  • 32. James Anderson, CHI (-12.1)
  • 33. Chad Greenway, MIN (-18.3)

The average grade is 0.8, with a standard deviation of 9.66. All positions have varied more in performance than pay, but that is some serious variation. Also, note Chad Greenway, who is comfortably the worst in the league. Just hang on to that for a moment, as we see the Top 5 paid 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 1. Chad Greenway, MIN ($8.12m)
  • 2. Thomas Davis, CAR ($7.3m)
  • 3. Jerod Mayo, NE ($7.121m)
  • 4. Lance Briggs, CHI ($5.833m)
  • 5. Von Miller, DEN ($5.25m)

Yup, Greenway is right at the top, by a cushy $1 million (almost). Oh dear. Greenway is pretty interesting. His third year in the league, 2008, he was PFF’s fourth-ranked out of 55 4-3 outside linebackers. In 2009, he was ninth of 54; in 2010, fifth of 41; in 2011, 32nd of 45 and went to the Pro Bowl (I am not making this up); and before last season signed his current contract, the most expensive among all 4-3 outside linebackers, before ranking 21st of 43 and going to the Pro Bowl again AND making the All-Pro second team. (Seriously, not making this up. Look it up.) The Vikings surely got a great deal on his rookie contract before making him the top paid man at his position and seeing his play slip. There could be a lot of reasons for this, including the possibility that the Vikings are not overpaying him but are rather reaping other benefits (he must be popular after making a name for himself, still going to the Pro Bowl and all) from having him on their roster. But for now, only pay and performance matter.1 Here are the Bottom 5 paid 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 29. Jacquian Williams, NYG ($0.53m)
  • 30. Malcolm Smith, SEA ($0.521m)
  • 31. Joplo Bartu, ATL & Paul Worrilow, ATL ($0.495m)
  • 33. Vontaze Burfict, CIN ($0.48m)

The average salary is $2.242 million, with a standard deviation of $2.201 million. That is about half their 3-4 counterparts, as 4-3 guys are usually not responsible for generating a pass rush. And here are the Top 5 contracts:

  • 1. Vontaze Burfict, CIN (2.35)
  • 2. Lavonte David, TB (2.26)
  • 3. Malcolm Smith, SEA (1.83)
  • 4. Von Miller, DEN (1.75)
  • 5. K.J. Wright, SEA (1.3)

Congratulations to Bengals General Manager Mike Brown! He, too, has two players in the running for best value at their position, second-year man Burfict being alongside rookie running back Giovani Bernard. Note that despite his fifth highest salary, and despite missing six games, Miller’s contract is still a steal for the Broncos. Here are the Bottom 5 contracts:

  • 29. Lance Briggs, CHI (-1.46)
  • 30. Thomas Davis, CAR (-1.61)
  • 31. Philip Wheeler, MIA (-2.41)
  • 32. Jerod Mayo, NE (-2.89)
  • 33. Chad Greenway, MIN (-4.65)

Obviously, after pulling a Flacco, Greenway was destined for the bottom. In fact, Greenway is only the second player to pull a “Full Flacco” by being the absolute most paid and the absolute worst player on the field, among his position. Enough of that, onto inside linebackers!

Top 5 performing inside linebackers:

  • 1. Patrick Willis, SF (14.6)
  • 2. Stephen Tulloch, DET (13.3)
  • 3. Derrick Johnson, KC (12.5)
  • 4. Brandon Spikes, NE (11.1)
  • 5. NaVorro Bowman, SF (8.3)

As a 49er fan, I know Willis is our most expensive player, and Bowman is not far behind after signing an extension last season. I definitely recall a pundit or too wondering why the 49ers were spending so much at inside linebacker when, with the passing game still becoming more and more featured, rushing the quarterback from the edge seemed the way to adapt. Still, with the 49ers getting good value from their outside guys, if they are going to spend a lot on their inside guys, at least Willis and Bowman are the best in the league. Here are the Bottom 5:

  • 48. DeMeco Ryans, PHI (-15)
  • 49. Mychal Kendricks, PHI (-15.7)
  • 50. Moise Fokou, TEN (-15.8)
  • 51. Craig Robertson, CLE (-16.2)
  • 52. London Fletcher, WAS (-21.4)

The average grade is a -3.31, with a standard deviation of 8.03. That is the lowest average grade of any position so far. Apparently it has been a rough year for inside linebackers. Well, at least on the field. As for the negotiating room, here are the Top 5 paid inside linebackers:

  • 1. David Harris, NYJ ($9m)
  • 2. Jon Beason, NYG ($8.822m)
  • 3. D’Qwell Jackson, CLE ($8.5m)
  • 4. Lawrence Timmons, PIT ($8.333m)
  • 5. James Laurinaitis, STL ($8.3m)

So while the 49ers pay Willis and Bowman a lot (about $7 and $6 million, respectively), they somehow escaped making them the most paid, I suspect by resigning them in the middle of the season, well before their current contracts were up.2 Here are the Bottom 5 paid inside linebackers:

  • 48. Vince Williams, PIT ($0.56m)
  • 49. Jerrell Freeman, IND ($0.493m)
  • 50. Josh Bynes, BAL ($0.48m)
  • 51. Spencer Paysinger, NYG ($0.466m)
  • 52. Craig Robertson, CLE ($0.435m)

The average salary is $3.218 million, with a standard deviation $2.996 million. How strange, that is right in between the two types of outside linebackers. And who is getting the most value?

The Top 5 inside linebacker contracts (so far):

  • 1. Brandon Spikes, NE (2.6)
  • 2. Sean Lee, DAL (2.14)
  • 3. Josh Bynes, BAL (1.91)
  • 4. Daryl Smith, BAL (1.77)
  • 5. Kiko Alonso, BUF (1.76)

Congratulations to Bill Belichick, General Manager (and coach) of the New England Patriots. Spikes, Lee, and the rookie Alonso are all still on their rookie deals, while Bynes and Smith are veterans. And here are the Bottom 5 contracts:

  • 48. Jon Beason, NYG (-1.97)
  • 49. Paul Posluszny, JAC (-2.14)
  • 50. A.J. Hawk, GB (-2.59)
  • 51. London Fletcher, WAS (-2.97)
  • 52. DeMeco Ryans, PHI (-3.05)

And that is it for linebackers! The remaining defensive positions (cornerbacks and safeties) will be up next week.


  1. Measuring things like “popularity” and being “a good guy in the locker room” is really difficult. Not all players have a Twitter account for people to follow; mentions in the newspaper can be bad or good; players are paid separately for any commercials they appear in. I have tried to acquire jersey sales and pro bowl vote tallies for every player in the league before (not just the Top 5 or Top 10 you see in the news), and while surely somewhere they exist, it may be impossible. If anyone knows how to obtain those figures, I would LOVE to have them. 
  2. SPOILER, while not making the top five, Willis and Bowman do in fact both have positive contract qualities, with a 0.75 and 0.31, respectively. 

Today I wrap up the offensive side of the ball as we continue our recurring series, ESPM Presents: The Search for the Best (& Worst!) Contract in Football.  It’s time for offensive line contracts. Lineman never get enough attention, which is sad, and will also be the case in this series. At the end of the season they’ll get their full due, but right now I want to move along to the defense before the end of the season gets here, and there are a great many offensive lineman (duh). I couldn’t bring myself to lump them all together, as the different positions on the line require different skill sets, but I did lump them all in the same post. I’ll be starting on the inside of the line and working my way out. As always, player performance grades come from the professional analysts at Pro Football Focus and salary information comes from the databases at Spotrac.com.

A quick note: in addition to the usual disclaimers about players providing worth beyond on-field performance (popularity, teamwork, what have you), there’s another thing this analysis misses: special teams play. This was also the case for a handful of backs and receivers who play special teams, but especially the lineman, who usually play every special teams snap (excluding kickoffs, in most cases). Keep that in mind. Now, here are the Top 3 performing centers who’ve played 25% or more of their teams’ snaps, through Week 12 (PFF grades in parentheses):

  • 1. Chris Myers, HOU (19.1)
  • 2. Manuel Ramirez, DEN (15.7)
  • 3. Alex Mack, CLE (11.9)

And the Bottom 3:

  • 32. Robert Turner, TEN (-13.1)
  • 33. Peter Konz, ATL & Gino Gradkowski, BAL (-15.1)

The average grade is 0.16, with a standard deviation of 8.5. So far it looks that, just like the other “skilled”1 positions, the variation in on-field performance is enormous. Also I’d like to mention that Nick Mangold of the New York Jets is currently 31st with a -10.6 grade. So, here are the Top 3 paid centers (average annual salary in millions of dollars in parentheses):

  • 1. Ryan Kalil, CAR ($8.186 million)
  • 2. Nick Mangold, NYJ ($7.153m)
  • 3. Max Unger, SEA ($6.459m)

Oh look, it’s Nick Mangold! It has never failed: at every position so far, one of the best paid is one of the worst on the field. And here are the Bottom 3 paid centers:

  • 32. Jim Cordle, NYG ($0.555m)
  • 33. Jason Kelce, PHI ($0.534m)
  • 34. Lemuel Jeanpierre, SEA ($0.465m)

The average salary of NFL centers who have played 25% or more of their teams’ snaps is $2.794 million, with a standard deviation of $2.163 million. That average is significantly more than fullbacks ($0.992m) and a touch more than tight ends ($2.546m), though still behind running backs ($3.043m), wide receivers ($3.258m), and quarterbacks ($7.818m). Which general managers have navigated contract negotiations to get the most for the least amount of cash? Here are the Top 3 contracts among centers (contract quality2 in parentheses):

  • 1. Manuel Ramirez, DEN (2.49)
  • 2. Stefen Wisniewski, OAK (1.92)
  • 3. Jason Kelce, PHI (1.75)

Congratulations to Bronco’s General Manager (and former Super Bowl winning quarterback) John Elway! As usual, those raking in high-priced free agent contracts are absent from the upper echelon. They do populate the Worst 3 contracts, though:

  • 32. Max Unger, SEA (-2.18)
  • 33. Scott Wells, STL (-2.27)
  • 34. Nick Mangold, NYJ (-3.28)

Unger is the third most paid, Wells the fourth, and Mangold the second. Some more on Mangold: in the past he has performed much, much better. Now 29 years old (not exactly “old” for a center), his play seems to have fallen off considerably this season. Since PFF began grading in 2008, he was the top ranked center in 2008 and 2009, second in 2010 and 2011, and sixth last year. I suspect he was worth (or nearly worth) the money all the years before now, but his contract goes through 2017, with $25m of the $50m+ guaranteed. If he keeps playing like this, that’ll end up a terrible investment.

On to guards. These are the Top 5 guards so far this season:

  • 1. Evan Mathis, PHI (33.7)
  • 2. Louis Vasquez, DEN (20.8)
  • 3. Josh Sitton, GB (17.9)
  • 4. Larry Warford, DET (16.4)
  • 5. Ben Grubbs, NO (13.5)

Evan Mathis!!! Goodness gracious. There are 74 guards who’ve played 25% or more of their teams’ snaps this season. So far Mathis is all alone at the top by a margin of 12. He’s outperformed the fifth best guard by a margin of 20! Of the positions I’ve examined, no one is dominating this season like Evan Mathis. The average grade among guards is a -2.65, with an Enormous standard deviation of 11.99. Still, that leaves Mathis one standard deviation ahead of second and nearly two in front of fifth; Kansas City fullback Anthony Sherman was pretty similarly isolated at the top, albeit among only 24 fullbacks. Mathis’ play stands out like no one else’s. Well, actually another guard’s play does as well, but for the wrong reasons. Here are the Bottom 5 performing guards:

  • 70. Mike McGlynn, IND (-20.8)
  • 71. David Diehl, NYG (-22.8)
  • 72. Will Rackley, JAC (-25.4)
  • 73. Davin Joseph, TB (-33.1)
  • 74. Lucas Nix, OAK (-40.1)

Oh, Lucas Nix, oh no. Nearly two standard deviations worse than fifth worst Mike McGlynn. Yikes. Davin Joseph is way down there too. What’s that? Did I just mention Davin Joseph? Well… the Top 5 paid guards:

  • 1. Logan Mankins, NE ($8.5m)
  • 2. Jahri Evans, NO ($8.1m)
  • 3. Andy Levitre, TEN ($7.8m)
  • 4. Davin Joseph, TB ($7.5m)
  • 5. Ben Grubbs, NO ($7.2m)

Ah, Davin Joseph! Yet another best paid, worst performer. Sigh. Onto the Bottom 5 paid guards:

  • 70.Ronald Leary, DAL ($0.483m)
  • 71. Nate Chandler, CAR ($0.482m)
  • 72. A.Q. Shipley, BAL & Lucas Nix, OAK ($0.48m)
  • 74. T.J. Lang, GB ($0.441m)

The average salary among guards is $2.481 million, with a standard deviation of $2.241 million. And while Joseph and Nix are the bottom two players in the league, the Bucs are paying Joseph $7.5 million a year (on average) while at least the Raiders only pay Nix $0.48 million.3 So, who’s the best deal for their team? Here are the Top 5 contracts among guards (contract quality in parentheses):

  • 1. Larry Warford, DET (2.35)
  • 2. Brandon Fusco, MIN (2.09)
  • 3. Evan Mathis, PHI (1.91)
  • 4. Travelle Wharton, CAR (1.89)
  • 5. T.J. Lang, GB (1.7)

The rookie Warford is having an excellent year, and having watched the Packers-Lions game yesterday I’m sure by now his performance grade and contract quality are even higher. Congratulations to Detroit Lions General Manager Martin Mayhew. But look at Mathis! Mathis’ average annual salary is $5 million a year, good for the 13th highest among guards. Almost all the others who make so much have negative contract qualities, and a few have slightly positive ones, but Mathis’ is good for third best! The Eagles are spending $5 million a year on him, and not just getting their money’s worth, but getting an absolute steal! I assume he won’t be able to keep this up, but even if his play drops some his contract should remain a sound investment. A rare example of a successful, expensive free agent signing. Most of them belong on the list of the Worst 5 contracts:

  • 70. Jahri Evans, NO & Logan Mankins, NE (-1.95)
  • 71. Jeromey Clary, SD (-2.08)
  • 72. Lucas Nix, OAK (-2.23)
  • 73. David Diehl, NYG (-2.88)
  • 74. Davin Joseph, TB (-4.78)

Evans is the second most expensive guard in the league, and Mankins is the most. In fact, the third most expensive, Andy Levitre, is just above them at 69th with a contract quality of -1.47. Nix, while cheap, is playing so frighteningly bad that he finds his way on the list as well. Diehl is the 12th most paid guard. And then there’s the elephant on the list, Davin Joseph. A -4.78! Oh my. Just, wow. The worst we’ve seen so far is a -3.83 from Dolphins’ wide receiver Mike Wallace, followed by a -3.78 from Raiders’ running back Darren McFadden. A -4.78. Oh jeez. I couldn’t resist, I took the standard deviation of the contract qualities of all 469 contracts I’ve evaluated (including tackles, whom we’ll get to in a moment).4 It’s a 1.2. Joseph’s contract quality is four standard deviations below the average. It’s just another of a dozen ways of saying: the Bucs are paying him way, way too much money.5

Last of the offensive positions, here are the Top 5 performing tackles:

  • 1. Joe Staley, SF (24.7)
  • 2. Jordan Gross, CAR (23.1)
  • 3. Joe Thomas, CLE (23)
  • 4. Jake Long, STL (22.3)
  • 5. Demar Dotson, TB (20.6)

Alright Joe Staley! Gross, Thomas, and Long find themselves among the Top 10 tackles in compensation. We’ll have to see if they’re truly worth it6, but at least they are some of the best at their position. Here are the Bottom 5 tackles:

  • 74. Eric Fisher, KC (-19.9)
  • 75. Lamar Holmes, ATL (-22.6)
  • 76. Bradley Sowell, ARI (-23.1)
  • 77. Paul McQuistan, SEA (-23.2)
  • 78. Jordan Mills, CHI (-31.5)

Eric Fisher, first overall pick in last year’s draft, continues to struggle.7 And tackle may be the last offensive position we look at, but it’s the first without someone pulling a Flacco! Tackles on big contracts may not be worth all the money, but they’ve at least played somewhat respectably. The closest to Flacco levels of pay and performance is the Chicago Bears’ Jermon Bushrod, who is the tenth best paid and the 13th worst on the field. The average grade of a tackle is a 1.82 and the standard deviation is 12.1. So while the group at the top is somewhat tight, Jordan Mills, also of the Bears, is pretty alone at the bottom. Poor Jay Cutler and Josh McCown! Here are the Top 5 paid tackles:

  • 1. Jason Peters, PHI ($10.11m)
  • 2. Joe Thomas, CLE ($10.063m)
  • 3. Trent Williams, WAS ($10m)
  • 4. Branden Albert, KC ($9.828m)
  • 5. Jordan Gross, CAR ($9.4m)

And the Bottom 5 paid tackles:

  • 74. Don Barclay, GB ($0.481m)
  • 75. Byron Bell, CAR ($0.47m)
  • 76. Cameron Bradfield, JAC ($0.467m)
  • 77. Matt McCants, OAK ($0.45m)
  • 78. Austin Pasztor, JAC ($0.435m)

Top paid Jason Peters is currently PFF’s 23rd ranked tackle, while Matt McCants is currently their 27th ranked tackle (through Week 12). Hmm. The average salary of tackles who’ve played 25% or more of their teams’ snaps is $3.347 million, the standard deviation $2.946 million. So, the Top 5 tackle contracts are (contract quality in parentheses):

  • 1. Tyler Polumbus, WAS (2.22)
  • 2. Demar Dotson, TB (2.14)
  • 3. Zach Strief, NO (1.89)
  • 4. Cordy Glenn, BUF (1.61)
  • 5. Chris Clark, DEN (1.49)

ESPM presents the award for best offensive tackle contract in the 2013 NFL Season (so far) to Washington Redskins General Manager Bruce Allen. Congratulations Bruce! Polumbus went undrafted out of University of Colorado Boulder, signing with the Broncos in 2008, the Lions and Seahawks in 2010, and then the Redskins in 2011. Dotson, Strief, and Clark are also veterans of a few short-term deals, while Glenn is on the second year of his rookie tender. Like the avoidance of a Flacco, this too suggests there may be something different about how tackles are evaluated and paid, relative to the other positions we’ve examined. Here are the Worst 5 tackle contracts:

  • 74. Jordan Mills, CHI (-1.82)
  • 75. William Beatty, NYG (-1.96)
  • 76. Jermon Bushrod, CHI (-2.24)
  • 77. D’Brickashaw Ferguson, NYJ (-2.39)
  • 78. Eric Fisher, KC (-2.54)

Yup, and completing the trend is rookie Eric Fisher, first overall selection of last year’s class. Mills is also a rookie, while Beatty and Ferguson are on their second contract, and Bushrod is on his third. Also the Chicago Bears! When both of your tackles play badly and are a big waste of money, well, it’s harder to win the NFC North at least.

As for what’s different about tackles, I’m not sure. They are the second highest paid position with that $3.347 million average. But I can’t see why NFL offices would be better at evaluating tackles than other positions (especially offensive line positions). Perhaps they aren’t, and it’s an aberration. Or perhaps it’s simply harder for younger tackles to come in and have success early, relative to other positions. Given that tackles are usually without help to their outside, that may be reasonable, and would certainly lend hope to fans of Fisher and Mills. In any case, I’m excited to revisit pay and performance upon the season’s conclusion and see if something more can be gleaned then.


  1. As if blocking a bunch of super quick super heavy super strong dudes from getting to where they’re paid millions of dollars to get to doesn’t require skill. Skill positions… who decided we call them that? 
  2. Contract Quality = (# Standard Deviations above/below Average Performance) – (# Standard Deviations above/below Average Salary) 
  3. Both Joseph and Nix are the rare examples of players who, using this analysis, should be paid negative dollars. That’s how badly they have played. Unfortunately negative dollars don’t have a clear interpretation. Should they pay their teams to let them play? Or should their teams pay them not to play? I’ll see if I can tinker with the analysis to resolve the issue, but for now just rest assured that they are playing terribly. 
  4. Yes, the average contract quality is 0. More on that when my search is said and done, after the regular season. 
  5. If, as I was, you’re curious about Joseph, keep reading. The Bucs drafted Davin Joseph 23rd overall in 2006. In 2008, he was PFF’s 57th ranked guard of 74, and made the Pro Bowl as a substitute; 2009, 75th of 84; 2010, 82nd of 82, and after that season signed his current contract, averaging $7.5 million a year over seven years with $19 million guaranteed, the fourth most expensive guard contract in the league today; 2011, 46th of 78, with another Pro Bowl appearance; and 2012 he missed the entire season due to injury. His Wikipedia page currently states that “He is currently considered to be one of the best guards in the NFL.” (CITATION NEEDED!!!!!) Mark Dominick, hired in early 2009 as the Bucs general manager, gave Joseph that contract… and is still their general manager today. Ben Dogra is Joseph’s agent; he also represents Adrian Peterson, Robert Griffin III, and the 49ers’ own Patrick Willis, as well as more NFL first round draft picks than any other agent since 2004, well, according to Wikipedia. (CITATION NEEDED) In any case, well done Mr. Dogra. Well f$%*ing done. 
  6. All three of them have negative contract values, but they aren’t too bad. Jake Long’s is -0.06, for example. And the season’s not done yet. 
  7. Luke Joeckel, 2nd overall pick, also struggled to a -6 grade through 280 snaps with the Jaguars before an injury ended his season weeks ago. 

Last night the 49ers beat the Washington D.C. Football Team1 27-6, and this morning Thanksgiving is in two days. Things are looking up! With that I am back with my recurring feature, Economics & Sports Management Presents: The Search for the Best (& Worst!) Contract in Football. The last couple weeks I’ve looked at quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. Today, we’ve got the last of the “skill position”2 players, which some teams don’t even bother with anymore. Today, I look at fullbacks.

With performance data through ten weeks on quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs, and eleven weeks for tight ends, the best contracts so far have been quarterback Russell Wilson, SEA (contract quality 2.35); wide receiver Doug Baldwin, SEA (2.26); running back Giovani Bernard, CIN (2.2); and tight end Jimmy Graham, NO (3.17). The worst have been quarterback Joe Flacco, BAL (-3.13); wide receiver Mike Wallace, MIA (-3.83); running back Darren McFadden, OAK (-3.78); and tight end Jared Cook, STL (-3.02). To review, contract quality measures the number of standard deviations a player’s on-field performance (as determined by Pro Football Focus) is above/below the average for his position, minus the number of standard deviations a player’s average annual salary (as reported by Spotrac.com) is above/below the average for his position. CQ = #SDs +/- in performance – #SDs +/- in salary. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 23 have had the same fullback in on at least 25% of their offensive snaps through Week 12.3 Here are the Top 5 performing fullbacks (PFF grade in parentheses):

  • 1. Anthony Sherman, KC (14.3)
  • 2. Collin Mooney, TEN (9)
  • 3. Mike Tolbert, CAR (8.9)
  • 4. John Kuhn, GB (7.4)
  • 5. John Conner, NYG (6.3)

Alright! Fullbacks! … Yeah. Tragically the 49ers’ Bruce Miller just missed the list, at 6th with a 5.9 grade. Mike Tolbert and John Kuhn probably get the most attention, but it’s Anthony Sherman, in his first season with the Chiefs4, traded after his first two years with the Cardinals, comfortably leading the way. And that’s on a fair foundation, as by now all teams have played exactly 11 games. (There are no more bye weeks.) Here are the Bottom 5 performing fullbacks:

  • 20. Derrick Coleman, SEA (-3.1)
  • 21. James Develin, NE (-3.2)
  • 22. Erik Lorig, TB (-5.7)
  • 23. Vonta Leach, BAL (-7.5)
  • 24. Tommy Bohanon, NYJ (-9.9)

Vonta Leach I’ve definitely heard of, and I’m not sure why he’s playing so badly this season. (Last year, he was the best fullback in the league.) The average grade among fullbacks is a 0.89, and the standard deviation is 5.66. As with other positions, there is enormous variation in the quality of play among different players. How about how much they make? Here are the Top 5 paid fullbacks (average annual salary, in millions of dollars, in parentheses):

  • 1. Marcel Reece, OAK ($3.113 million)
  • 2. Mike Tolbert, CAR ($2.725m)
  • 3. John Kuhn, GB ($2.533m)
  • 4. Jerome Felton, MIN ($2.5m)
  • 5. Vonta Leach, BAL ($1.875m)

This is the fifth position I’ve looked at, and it never fails: there is always someone on the bottom of the performance list who makes the top of the salary list. Way to go, Vonta Leach! You have successfully pulled a Flacco. (I know he was just the Super Bowl MVP but actually it’s not a good thing.) And here are the Bottom 5 paid fullbacks:

  • 20. Erik Lorig, TB ($0.456m)
  • 21. Jamize Olawale, OAK & Will Ta’ufo’ou, JAC ($0.435m)
  • 23. Collin Mooney, TEN & Jed Collins, NO ($0.43m)

Olawale and Ta’uf’ou!5 Alright! The average salary among fullbacks is $0.992 million. The standard deviation is $0.86 million. There is much less variation among how much fullbacks are paid relative to how well they play. Generally this has been the case with other positions as well. So, which general managers have gotten the most out of their investment? The ESPM Award for Best Fullback Contract (so far) goes to… John Dorsey, General Manager of the Kansas City Chiefs! Chiefs’ fullback Anthony Sherman has a contract value of 2.87, comfortably in the lead through Week 12. Here are the Top 5 fullback contracts (contract quality in parentheses):

  • 1. Anthony Sherman, KC (2.87)
  • 2. Collin Mooney, TEN (2.09)
  • 3. Bruce Miller, SF (1.43)
  • 4. John Conner, NYG (1.38)
  • 5. Jamize Olawale, OAK (0.91)

And it’s “All the Way” Olawale by a nose! Also whooo Bruce Miller! With Bruce, four of the top six performers are tops in contract quality as well. This has not been the case in other positions; a number of receivers and backs, while being among the best in the league, were still overpaid. I suspect this is because fullbacks aren’t usually stars the way other offensive players are. A franchise may feel compelled to keep a star (or farmer star) quarterback or wide receiver for whatever cost, due to their relationship with the team or the fans, their popularity, etc. Yet those aspects fall outside this analysis. And in any case, those qualities may not be a significant factor (especially) among fullbacks. Here are the Worst 5 fullback contracts, based on play through Week 12:

  • 20. John Kuhn, GB (-0.64)
  • 21. Tommy Bohanon, NYJ (-1.4)
  • 22. Jerome Felton, MIN (-1.68)
  • 23. Marcel Reece, OAK (-2.34)
  • 24. Vonta Leach, BAL (-2.51)

I know Ravens General Manager Ozzie Newsome got them a championship, but future prospects may not be so bright, being firmly in the running for two of the worst contracts among the five positions I’ve examined. Although I guess Leach isn’t quite as spectacular as Joe Flacco himself, who was the best paid and the worst quarterback. Four of the five most expensive fullbacks find themselves on the list. Again and again, we see that high-priced free agent signings usually aren’t worth it.

That’s it for fullbacks. Later this week I’ll tackle the offensive line positions and try not to get flagged for defensive holding. Stay tuned.


  1. Yeah, it’s pretty obvious I’m waffling on this whole Redskins name issue. Hopefully I’ll have reached a decision soon. I definitely want to go back and listen to what Mike Tirico said on Monday Night Football, also maybe actually see what Native Americans themselves have to say on the subject. 
  2. I hate that term. Blocking J.J. Watt, and even most other defensive players, takes skill. Weighing 300 pounds helps, but there’s A Lot more to it. 
  3. OAK has actually had two different fullbacks each play 25% or more of their snaps. The teams without a qualifying fullback are ARI, ATL, CIN, DAL, DEN, DET, MIA, PHI, and SD. 
  4. Apparently this is the more racist name? Like I said I need to look into it more thoroughly. 
  5. Patenting the nicknames Jamize “All the Way” Olawale and Will “Tougher Than You” Ta’ufo’ou. 
%d bloggers like this: