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There are so many wonderful things to gamble on in this world. With the Oscar nominations announced this morning, a lot cleared up in those gambling races. Twelve Years a Slave’s money line is -250, which along with American Hustle at +275 and Gravity at +750 wraps up the favorites. And while perusing such lines, what do you know, there are early money lines out for all 32 teams on Super Bowl XLIX, taking place February 1st, 2015 in Glendale, Arizona. Let’s take a look!

Rank Team American Odds Fractional Odds (to One)
1 DEN 600 6
1 SEA 600 6
3 SF 700 7
4 NE 1200 12
5 GB 1500 15
5 NO 1500 15
7 ATL 1800 18
7 CIN 1800 18
9 CAR 2000 20
10 ARI 2500 25
10 CHI 2500 25
10 KC 2500 25
10 IND 2500 25
10 PHI 2500 25
15 BAL 3000 30
15 DAL 3000 30
15 DET 3000 30
15 HOU 3000 30
15 NYG 3000 30
15 PIT 3000 30
15 SD 3000 30
15 STL 3000 30
15 WAS 3000 30
24 MIA 4000 40
24 TB 4000 40
24 TEN 4000 40
27 NYJ 6000 60
27 BUF 6000 60
27 CLE 6000 60
27 MIN 6000 60
31 JAC 10000 100
31 OAK 10000 100

Funny how none of the bottom teams have a clear guy at quarterback yet. Who might be worth putting some money on?

The New England Patriots, +1200

This team is playing in the AFC championship game this Sunday. How could they be underrated? Well, they have endured one of the more tortured campaigns in recent memory with injury after injury, almost none of their ten best players from a year ago are still playing, and with Bill Belichick at the reins and Tom Brady in the huddle they are still playing in the freaking AFC championship this Sunday.

The counter argument here is that Patriots won one and a half more games than they “should” have this season,1 and that the player I mentioned in the previous paragraph will be 37 years old. Still, with the Pats basically making the playoffs every year, at 12-1 it might not be crazy.

The Green Bay Packers, +1500

By some measures, the Packers actually suffered more bad injury luck than the Patriots this season. Oh, and also by conventional measures: Aaron Rodgers missed two months and Clay Matthews was out for good by the time the playoffs came round. Which the Packers still made; which they went out of on the last play of the game, by three points, to the 49ers, currently headed to their third straight NFC championship game. The Packers can play with the very best. Aaron Rodgers probably is the very best.

The NFC North will likely be a tougher beat than the AFC East, however. And the Packers’ coaches, particularly Mike McCarthy and defensive coordinator Dom Capers, do not seem to be in quite the same class as the league’s best. Still, a better than a one in sixteen chance that the Packers win it all seems likely.

The New Orleans Saints, +1500

Drew Brees. Also though stuck in the six seed this season, the Saints were a couple of games away (read: road losses to the Jets and the Patriots) from better playoff positioning.

But, you know, they still have to play eight road games next season, so…

The Atlanta Falcons, +1800

The best bet of the bunch? Maybe. If not, it will be the next one. There is a lot to like about the Falcons, who lost Matt Ryan’s top weapons on offense (like seriously, the wide receivers and the running backs), and eventually resorted to starting only high school seniors on defense, or something, I forget. But that Matt Ryan! Matt Ryan has been one of Pro Football Focus’ top five quarterbacks four of his six seasons in the league. Among the league’s elite quarterbacks, his team is getting the worst odds (which is to say, the best odds). Oh yeah, and the Falcons have the sixth pick in the draft.

The main downside here is the NFC South. The Falcons will have tough competition next year. In fact, the Panthers at +2000 might be more compelling than these featured teams. The Panthers might be so compelling that one might be compelled to write a post just about them in the near-ish future. (HINT: One such person might be me.)

The Houston Texans, +3000

“Houston, we have a quarterback.” These words must be realized in order for Houston to win it all. But the Texans do not need the best quarterback, they just need a starting NFL quarterback. They have the number one pick in the draft. But yeah, Manziel or Bridgewater, rookie quarterbacks cannot win the Super Bowl, etc.2 But what if they trade that pick for an established quarterback (and that team’s first rounder, or some later round picks or whatever)? Philip Rivers will turn 33 in December of next season. Michael Vick will turn 34 in June, and apparently has lost his job to Nick Foles. Eli Manning just turned 33. Ben Roethlisberger turns 32 in March.3

Remember, Houston won a playoff game in each of the previous two seasons. They were the unluckiest team in the NFL this season, winning two fewer games than their net point total suggests they should have. Also, they likely adjusted their priorities when it became clear they would not make the playoffs. J.J. Watt and Andre Johnson have been among the very, very best at their respective positions since they entered the league. The toughest competition for their division will likely come from the Colts. They should have an easier schedule after finishing last in the league. They are currently 30-1. Remember this day, sports fans. Remember this.


  1. According to football’s Pythagorean theorem, they outperformed by 1.5 wins. 
  2. There is actually no rule that says that a rookie quarterback cannot win the Super Bowl. Keep that in mind. 
  3. Confession: All I want to do now is get in a room with Rick Smith, Houston’s general manager, and talk about this. Also, how crazy would this be: the number one pick for RGIII? Tragically, Washington already gave their next 4,500 draft picks to the Rams, and without anything else to work with not even I will grant this feasibility, but… damn. 

I embarked on a pretty sweet mini-project today, if I do say so myself. It starts with a couple of… “problems” that had been nagging me, regarding the lack of use of football’s Pythagorean formula. Pythagorean wins (or winning percentage) have been showing up in NFL analysis for, I dunno, at least a few years now. I learned of them in a Bill Barnwell preseason piece before the 2012 NFL Season (on Grantland.com). A team’s Pythagorean winning percentage (PW%) is as follows:
PW% = (Points Scored ^ 2.37) / {(Points Scored ^ 2.37) + (Points Allowed ^ 2.37)}1
Say the Bengals and Browns are both 8-8. The Bengals blew out their opponents in their eight wins, and lost narrowly in their eight losses, while the Browns won narrowly in their wins and lost big in their losses. You probably agree that even with the same record, the Bengals are likely better than the Browns. PW% is a measure of how much.

What’s bothered me is that Pythagorean analysis usually stops there: with a team’s points scored and points allowed. But one could apply the same analysis to a group of teams, say the 49ers’ opponents in the 2013 season, and determine that group’s PW%. Then one would know how tough the 49ers’ competition had been this year, beyond simple wins and losses. And, instead of using this year’s record as a strength of schedule statistic for next year’s season, one could use it for this very season itself, adding context to those final standings. We don’t have to just assume that all ten-win teams are equally skilled (or that they aren’t); we can quantify other useful metrics and see if there’s any evidence for our assumptions. And that’s exactly what I’ve done. For all 32 teams, and all 13 of their opponents, through 15 games.2 Let’s take a look!

First off, we have our sin-context base, nothing but the ‘W’s:

Rank Team W W%
1 SEA 12 80.00%
1 DEN 12 80.00%
3 SF 11 78.57%
4 CAR 11 73.33%
4 KC 11 73.33%
4 NE 11 73.33%
7 CIN 10 66.67%
7 NO 10 66.67%
7 ARI 10 66.67%
7 IND 10 66.67%
11 PHI 9 60.00%
12 SD 8 53.33%
12 DAL 8 53.33%
12 MIA 8 53.33%
12 BAL 8 53.33%
12 CHI 8 53.33%
17 GB 7.5 50.00%
18 DET 7 46.67%
18 STL 7 46.67%
18 PIT 7 46.67%
18 NYJ 7 46.67%
22 TEN 6 40.00%
22 BUF 6 40.00%
22 NYG 6 40.00%
25 MIN 4.5 30.00%
26 ATL 4 28.57%
27 TB 4 26.67%
27 CLE 4 26.67%
27 OAK 4 26.67%
27 JAC 4 26.67%
31 WAS 3 20.00%
32 HOU 2 13.33%

Alright. Mostly, all that’s good for is figuring out who gets the first pick in the draft. Let’s add some context. Here are the same figures, for Pythagorean wins:

Rank Team Pythagorean Wins PW%
1 SEA 11.9 79.17%
2 CAR 11.1 74.18%
3 SF 10.9 72.95%
4 DEN 10.8 71.88%
5 KC 10.7 71.05%
6 CIN 10.2 68.02%
7 NO 9.7 64.90%
8 NE 9.7 64.62%
9 ARI 9.0 60.29%
10 PHI 8.8 58.76%
11 SD 8.6 57.65%
12 IND 8.4 56.01%
13 DET 8.0 53.18%
14 DAL 7.7 51.29%
15 STL 7.6 50.35%
16 PIT 7.4 49.34%
17 MIA 7.4 49.05%
18 GB 7.1 47.58%
19 BAL 7.1 47.14%
20 CHI 6.9 46.16%
21 TEN 6.9 45.88%
22 BUF 6.6 43.86%
23 MIN 5.6 37.58%
24 ATL 5.4 36.32%
25 TB 5.4 35.76%
26 CLE 5.4 35.68%
27 OAK 4.9 32.53%
28 NYG 4.8 31.94%
29 WAS 4.7 31.19%
30 NYJ 4.6 30.79%
31 HOU 3.9 26.17%
32 JAC 3.1 20.58%

Now Carolina and San Francisco appear a little bit better than Denver; Jacksonville still has a firm grip on last place, in the Pythagorean world. Curious how these little differences do add up and do affect rankings. You can get an idea of how teams landed where they did by checking out their point totals, presented here, in order of most net points through the 15 games so far:

Rank Team Net Points PF PF Rank PA PA Rank
1 DEN 187 572 1 385 22
2 SEA 168 390 8 222 2
3 SF 131 383 10 252 3
4 KC 128 406 6 278 4
5 CAR 124 345 19 221 1
6 CIN 108 396 7 288 6
7 NE 92 410 5 318 9
8 NO 85 372 13 287 5
9 PHI 58 418 2 360 16
9 ARI 58 359 16 301 7
11 SD 45 369 14 324 11
12 IND 35 361 15 326 12
13 DET 20 382 11 362 17
14 DAL 9 417 3 408 25
15 STL 2 339 20 337 13
16 PIT -4 359 16 363 18
17 MIA -5 310 24 315 8
18 BAL -15 303 26 318 9
19 GB -16 384 9 400 24
20 TEN -25 346 18 371 19
21 CHI -28 417 3 445 30
22 BUF -35 319 23 354 15
23 TB -76 271 29 347 14
24 CLE -85 301 27 386 23
25 ATL -89 333 21 422 29
26 MIN -90 377 12 467 32
27 NYG -103 274 28 377 20
28 NYJ -110 270 30 380 21
29 OAK -111 308 25 419 27
30 WAS -130 328 22 458 31
31 HOU -146 266 31 412 26
32 JAC -182 237 32 419 27

Those are the inputs. And the outputs? Subtracting actual wins from Pythagorean wins, we reveal how many “lucky” wins (or losses) each team has:

Rank Team W – PW W PW
1 NYJ 2.4 7 4.6
2 IND 1.6 10 8.4
3 NE 1.3 11 9.7
4 DEN 1.2 12 10.8
5 NYG 1.2 6 4.8
6 CHI 1.1 8 6.9
7 ARI 1.0 10 9.0
8 BAL 0.9 8 7.1
9 JAC 0.9 4 3.1
10 MIA 0.6 8 7.4
11 GB 0.4 7.5 7.1
12 KC 0.3 11 10.7
13 DAL 0.3 8 7.7
14 NO 0.3 10 9.7
15 PHI 0.2 9 8.8
16 SEA 0.1 12 11.9
17 SF 0.1 11 10.9
18 CAR -0.1 11 11.1
19 CIN -0.2 10 10.2
20 PIT -0.4 7 7.4
21 STL -0.6 7 7.6
22 BUF -0.6 6 6.6
23 SD -0.6 8 8.6
24 OAK -0.9 4 4.9
24 TEN -0.9 6 6.9
26 DET -1.0 7 8.0
27 MIN -1.1 4.5 5.6
28 CLE -1.4 4 5.4
29 TB -1.4 4 5.4
30 ATL -1.4 4 5.4
31 WAS -1.7 3 4.7
32 HOU -1.9 2 3.9

The Jets have outperformed by more than two wins! And Rex Ryan still might get fired. Also, Jacksonville’s good luck has ruined formerly promising chances of getting the first pick in the draft, as likely they’ll instead see it go to Houston. It’s really Houston that has performed better, losing by significantly fewer points, albeit more often. Well, perhaps Houston’s competition was much easier? Or perhaps not? You don’t have to wonder, let’s see! Here are the teams ranked by the average net points of their opponents, adjusted by removing totals from games against the team in question.3

Tm Rk O Nt Pts /Gm O PF /Gm Rk O PA /Gm Rk
DET 1 -338 -1.64 5,043 24.48 23 5,381 26.12 3
GB 2 -304 -1.48 5,047 24.50 24 5,351 25.98 4
PHI 3 -282 -1.37 5,106 24.79 27 5,388 26.16 2
KC 4 -279 -1.35 5,118 24.84 28 5,397 26.20 1
CHI 5 -259 -1.26 4,964 24.10 19 5,223 25.35 10
BAL 6 -216 -1.05 5,105 24.78 26 5,321 25.83 6
PIT 7 -211 -1.02 4,859 23.59 11 5,070 24.61 14
BUF 8 -179 -0.87 4,539 22.03 1 4,718 22.90 23
DAL 10 -177 -0.86 5,140 24.95 29 5,317 25.81 7
CIN 9 -177 -0.86 4,934 23.95 16 5,111 24.81 12
OAK 11 -176 -0.85 4,979 24.17 22 5,155 25.02 11
CLE 12 -129 -0.63 4,883 23.70 13 5,012 24.33 15
NYJ 13 -89 -0.43 4,722 22.92 4 4,811 23.35 19
NE 14 -84 -0.41 4,679 22.71 2 4,763 23.12 20
SD 15 -56 -0.27 5,195 25.22 30 5,251 25.49 8
MIN 16 -28 -0.14 5,048 24.50 25 5,076 24.64 13
JAC 17 -1 0.00 4,912 23.84 15 4,913 23.85 16
DEN 18 15 0.07 4,833 23.46 9 4,818 23.39 17
TEN 19 29 0.14 4,846 23.52 10 4,817 23.38 18
WAS 20 78 0.38 5,417 26.30 31 5,339 25.92 5
SEA 21 81 0.39 4,783 23.22 5 4,702 22.83 24
SF 22 109 0.53 4,808 23.34 6 4,699 22.81 25
MIA 23 127 0.62 4,823 23.41 7 4,696 22.80 26
CAR 24 161 0.78 4,829 23.44 8 4,668 22.66 27
ATL 25 208 1.01 4,701 22.82 3 4,493 21.81 32
HOU 26 220 1.07 4,969 24.12 21 4,749 23.05 21
IND 27 222 1.08 4,967 24.11 20 4,745 23.03 22
STL 28 255 1.24 4,902 23.80 14 4,647 22.56 28
NYG 29 328 1.59 5,571 27.04 32 5,243 25.45 9
ARI 30 333 1.62 4,871 23.65 12 4,538 22.03 30
NO 31 361 1.75 4,954 24.05 17 4,593 22.30 29
TB 32 458 2.22 4,961 24.08 18 4,503 21.86 31

You see, there’s really quite a difference. Buffalo’s opponents, in games not against Buffalo, scored an average of 22.03 a game; five points a game fewer than the unfortunate New York Giants, who went up against all four top offenses in the league, two of them (Philadelphia and Dallas) twice! Notice Washington is down there too; teams in the same division tend to clump together, as 75% of their opponents are in common. Kansas City played the worst defenses overall (through 15 games), while Atlanta faced the toughest. All in all, Detroit’s opponents, in games not against Detroit, lost by 1.64 points on average, while Tampa Bay’s opponents won by 2.22 points, nearly a four-point swing between extremes.

Putting it all together, these are the Pythagorean winning percentages of the opponents of all thirty-two teams, along with the PW% of the team itself. The difference, which I quite originally dub “Relative Performance” (actual PW% minus expected PW% given those opponents), indicates how well a team fared against its competition, relative to other teams against the same opponents.

Team Rank Relative Performance Opp. PW% Rank Expected PW% Actual PW%
SEA 1 30.19% 51.01% 21 48.99% 79.17%
CAR 2 26.19% 52.01% 24 47.99% 74.18%
SF 3 24.31% 51.36% 22 48.64% 72.95%
DEN 4 22.06% 50.18% 18 49.82% 71.88%
NO 5 19.37% 54.47% 31 45.53% 64.90%
KC 6 17.90% 46.86% 4 53.14% 71.05%
CIN 7 15.93% 47.91% 9 52.09% 68.02%
ARI 8 14.48% 54.19% 30 45.81% 60.29%
NE 9 13.56% 48.95% 14 51.05% 64.62%
IND 10 8.72% 52.71% 27 47.29% 56.01%
SD 11 7.01% 49.36% 15 50.64% 57.65%
PHI 12 5.58% 46.82% 3 53.18% 58.76%
STL 13 3.51% 53.16% 28 46.84% 50.35%
MIA 14 0.63% 51.58% 23 48.42% 49.05%
DET 15 -0.65% 46.16% 1 53.84% 53.18%
DAL 16 -0.71% 48.00% 11 52.00% 51.29%
PIT 17 -3.17% 47.48% 6 52.52% 49.34%
TEN 18 -3.77% 50.36% 19 49.64% 45.88%
BAL 19 -5.31% 47.55% 7 52.45% 47.14%
GB 20 -5.88% 46.54% 2 53.46% 47.58%
CHI 21 -6.85% 46.99% 5 53.01% 46.16%
BUF 22 -8.43% 47.71% 8 52.29% 43.86%
TB 23 -8.53% 55.71% 32 44.29% 35.76%
ATL 24 -11.00% 52.68% 25 47.32% 36.32%
MIN 25 -12.75% 49.67% 16 50.33% 37.58%
NYG 26 -14.47% 53.59% 29 46.41% 31.94%
CLE 27 -15.87% 48.46% 12 51.54% 35.68%
WAS 28 -17.95% 50.86% 20 49.14% 31.19%
OAK 29 -19.52% 47.94% 10 52.06% 32.53%
NYJ 30 -20.32% 48.89% 13 51.11% 30.79%
HOU 31 -21.15% 52.68% 26 47.32% 26.17%
JAC 32 -29.43% 49.99% 17 50.01% 20.58%

So take my 49ers. Their average opponent should expect to win 51.36% of their games not against the 49ers, but only 27.05% of their games against the 49ers.4 That difference, 24.31%, is the third largest in the league. GO NINERS! Only Carolina and Seattle have dominated more thoroughly, giving their opponents quite a whooping, much more so than their opponents receive from other teams. Kansas City, meanwhile, boasts a healthy 71.05 PW%; but against its crummy competition, other teams have been averaging a 53.14 PW% anyway, so it’s a little less impressive, knocking their relative performance to sixth in the league.

Oh, and check out the Jets! Further evidence that I was right when I declared that their 2013 campaign was quite impressive earlier this week. Other teams facing the Jets’ competition have a respectable 51.11 PW%; they outperform them over half the time. The Jets, meanwhile, only manage 30.79%, getting badly outperformed by mediocre teams. Ick. I should point out that by these measures, Tampa Bay had the toughest schedule, while Detroit had the easiest– and still missed the playoffs. Ouch.

Lastly, we’ll return to the “real” numbers, straight-up wins, side-by-side with their Pythagorean expectations. This post has been about context. Wins and losses mean different things in different contexts; a context of narrow defeats and blowout wins suggests a team is merely having some bad breaks, and inspires optimism; a context of blowout defeats and narrow wins indicates the opposite, and the tempering of future expectations. But context is only that: context. The real content, the wins and losses themselves, is what we care about. Here they are, side by side:

Team Rank W Expected PW Actual PW PW Over/Under Expected W Over/Under PW
SEA 1 12 7.3 11.9 4.5 0.1
DEN 1 12 7.5 10.8 3.3 1.2
CAR 3 11 7.2 11.1 3.9 -0.1
SF 3 11 7.3 10.9 3.6 0.1
KC 3 11 8.0 10.7 2.7 0.3
NE 3 11 7.7 9.7 2.0 1.3
NO 7 10 6.8 9.7 2.9 0.3
CIN 7 10 7.8 10.2 2.4 -0.2
ARI 7 10 6.9 9.0 2.2 1.0
IND 7 10 7.1 8.4 1.3 1.6
PHI 11 9 8.0 8.8 0.8 0.2
SD 12 8 7.6 8.6 1.1 -0.6
MIA 12 8 7.3 7.4 0.1 0.6
DAL 12 8 7.8 7.7 -0.1 0.3
BAL 12 8 7.9 7.1 -0.8 0.9
CHI 12 8 8.0 6.9 -1.0 1.1
GB 17 7.5 8.0 7.1 -0.9 0.4
STL 18 7 7.0 7.6 0.5 -0.6
DET 18 7 8.1 8.0 -0.1 -1.0
PIT 18 7 7.9 7.4 -0.5 -0.4
NYJ 18 7 7.7 4.6 -3.0 2.4
TEN 22 6 7.4 6.9 -0.6 -0.9
BUF 22 6 7.8 6.6 -1.3 -0.6
NYG 22 6 7.0 4.8 -2.2 1.2
MIN 25 4.5 7.5 5.6 -1.9 -1.1
TB 26 4 6.6 5.4 -1.3 -1.4
ATL 26 4 7.1 5.4 -1.6 -1.4
CLE 26 4 7.7 5.4 -2.4 -1.4
OAK 26 4 7.8 4.9 -2.9 -0.9
JAC 26 4 7.5 3.1 -4.4 0.9
WAS 31 3 7.4 4.7 -2.7 -1.7
HOU 32 2 7.1 3.9 -3.2 -1.9

  1. Multiply the % by the number of games played to obtain Pythagorean wins. You may then compare the number of Pythagorean wins to actual wins; if actual wins are greater, the team has been lucky, while if Pythagorean wins are greater, they’ve been unlucky. The two figures even out in the long run but may differ over short stretches. (Even a full sixteen game season. Sixteen games isn’t that many. You know they play 162 in baseball?) 
  2. Remember, teams play 16 games against 13 opponents because they play each team in their division twice; the last game of the season is always an intra-division match-up, so at the moment each team has played 15 games against 13 teams. 
  3. Sorry this chart’s headers are a little lacking; it was the only way I could get it to fit onto one page. It was either that or splitting it into three separate charts, which I thought worse. 
  4. 100% – San Francisco’s actual PW% of 72.95% = 27.05%. 

It’s been a couple of weeks since I checked my notes on silly things announcers say during games, and I thought I’d get back to it. Let’s go!

At home in Week 13, the Texans force a Patriots’ punt and get the ball back just before halftime.

CBS play-by-play veteran Greg Gumbel:

And with 28 seconds on the clock, the Texans will have the ball at their own 20 yard line, and unless something really, really strange happens they’re going to go the locker room with the lead.

I guess this is the equivalent of whatever an honorable mention would be in this series. John Madden said things like this all the time. When you’re public speaking for three hours, you’ll probably end up saying something “really, really” obvious somewhere in there. I’m mostly fine with announcers saying a few things here and there just to fill in the broadcast, but I still thought this was funny.

At home in Week 13, the Panthers gain two yards on 3rd&G from the Bucs’ three yard line with 30 seconds left in the second quarter.

Fox’s play-by-play man Chris Myers:

Now let’s see if he’s going to go for it or not, remember he said he plays percentages, he’s going to let the clock run, of course you can always go for it, if you miss it you pin Tampa Bay back there with your time outs.

Color commentator Tim Ryan, former third round pick of the Chicago Bears in the 1990 NFL Draft:

I’m never chasing points early in games, Riverboat Ron or not, check the analytics, take the points.

Ugh. Tim, I’m taking your advice, and actually checking the analytics. (Although it’s really obvious going for it is the better strategy.) HEY, the analytics say that going for it provides the Panthers a 79% chance of winning and kicking the field goal results in a 74% chance of winning. Tim, if I agreed to give you $3 every day (100% of days) over four weeks, or if I agreed to give you $7 on 19 days within four weeks (68% of days), which would you prefer? The 100% chance of $3 ($3 on average each day, $84 total), or the 68% chance of $7 ($4.76 on average each day, $133 total)? Yes Tim, as the NFL average of converting 4th&1 is 68%1, the deal I’m offering is pretty much analogous to this situation. This is what checking the analytics means, Tim. What do you think?

Tim Ryan:

I think two missed opportunities to give Cam Newton the ball there on second and third down, and it looks like they’re going to be out there and they’re gonna go for it here on fourth down. I would just take the points and go up by a touchdown.

Chris Myers:

Ron Rivera chooses otherwise, if you were going to do that, maybe leave a little more time in case you stop ’em, but let’s see.

Before the play, the Bucs call timeout. Chris Myers:

So how about this call?

Tim Ryan:

I don’t ever want to chase points, especially in the first half of games, you’ve got an opportunity to kick a field goal, Ron knows way more about it than I do, he’s got obviously great trust in his football team, I would not give an opportunity for Tampa to change the momentum, if they can get a stop here.

The Panthers go for it, and Cam Newton dives over the line for a touchdown.

Eventually Ryan says:

I guess if I had that guy and I was Ron Rivera I’d be going for it too. … I don’t care what your cards say, you’re always holding a royal flush when Cam’s out there.

Way to go Tim! Way to go. Next time, maybe have an intern check the analytics for you, and you won’t have to use poker vernacular to distract your audience that you just used the phrase “chasing points” several times like it actually means something, but really you don’t know what you’re talking about.

At home against the Bears in Week 13, the Vikings get a first down at the Bears 21 with 9:03 left in overtime.

Thom Brennaman:

Well they’re going to continue to run plays here, for the time being anyway, after the penalty the ball all the way down to the 21. …

On first down, Peterson loses three yards, setting up 2nd&13 from the Bear 24.

Thom Brennaman:

Right now it would be a 43 yard field goal attempt, maybe 42 yards, and we mentioned earlier Walsh, has been lights out in his career, short albeit it. But a Pro Bowler as a rookie a season ago, and only two misses all of this year.

Brian Billick:

Can Blair Walsh make it from here? Then center it up and kick the ball. There are too many things that can go wrong.

The “Can Blair Walsh make it from here?” question is, well, disturbing coming from a former Super Bowl winning head coach, who presumably took the same logic in his own decisions. As we saw in Week 14, Matt Prater can hit a 64 yard field goal in Denver. Should the Broncos kick every time they get to their opponents’ 47 yard line? Probably not, right? You’ll notice the Broncos only kicked that field goal because there was no time left in the first half. If there was, they would have kept running plays to get closer. And that’s the thing about field goals: closer is always better. Always. Brian Burke’s research suggests that every yard closer increases field goal percentage by 1.6% (between the 10 and 35 yard lines). But anyway, Peterson gained three yards, setting up 3rd&10 from the 21. The Vikings put out their field goal unit.

Brian Billick:

And this is a good call, why do it on fourth down, do it on third down, than god forbid if there’s a bad snap, something happens, then you can fall on the ball and re- and take another kick, so this is a good move by Minnesota, by doing this on third down.

How likely is a bad snap, or a “something happens”, that lets the Vikings get another shot? (Note: a missed field goal ends the offense’s position, even if it’s not on fourth down.) Burke guesses it’s around 0.5%, or one in every two hundred. That seems fair given that of the last 500 extra point attempts, where the process for snapping and holding is exactly the same, only seven have been missed. If all seven are the result of bad snaps or holds (which they probably aren’t), that’s a bad snap/hold rate of 1.4%. But even if you really go crazy and think it’s 2%, the Vikings can increase their chances of winning by 3.2% just by gaining two yards! Adrian Peterson averaged 6 yards per carry in that game, and is around five yards per carry in his career.

As it turned out, Walsh hit the field goal, but a 15 yard penalty on the Vikings set up 3rd&25 from the Bear 36. The Vikings put their offense back out on the field.

Brian Billick:

They feel like they need to grind out a couple more yards, rather than- rather than give Blair Walsh the shot from here.

Vikings head coach Leslie Frazier decided to make the field goal easier here… only for Peterson to actually lose three yards, and see Walsh miss the ensuing 57 yarder. The Bears got the ball and got to a 2nd&7 from the Vikings 29, and sent their field goal unit out to attempt a 47 yard field goal.

Brian Billick:

You know same mentality, why risk the turnover, you’ve got a great deal of faith in your field goal kicker. You know I had a great one in Baltimore Thom in Matt Stover, and by quarter, Matt would tell me exactly where I needed to be in order to attempt these field goals. … There’s no question it’s within his range. Once you cross that 30 as a I said, you set that mark, once you get past it then that’s when you make your decision as a coach. … This is clearly his range.

Again, being incredibly generous to this thinking, we’re looking at a 2% chance of bumbling the snap/hold process, and a 1.6% improvement of making the kick for every yard the Bears continue to advance down the field. A kicker’s “range” is not static: every bit closer the odds go up, every bit farther away the odds go down. Plus, it was only second down! Even if you want to go on third down in the very unlikely event your field goal unit botches it, at least use second down! Yeah, the Bears could turn the ball over, but have the odds of that changed in the last couple plays? If you’re worried about a turnover why not just punt as soon as you get the ball? Anyway, Gould missed wide right; the Vikings eventually won on the next possession.

In Tennessee down 10-7, the Cardinals kick a field goal on 4th&2 from the Titan 7 with 7:25 left in the second quarter.

FOX color commentator Charles Davis:

I think it’s the right call this early in the game, Arizona plenty more opportunities on offense, and moving and clicking pretty well now, you don’t turn down points here, not anywhere close to a desperation move. Munchak, we saw him, head coach of the Titans, happy with his defense coming up with that third down stop and forcing a field goal attempt.

Blegh. Forget the hyperbole of momentum, turning down points, etc. Going for it gave the Cardinals a 50% chance of winning; kicking the field goal, 48%. Oh yeah, and also the Cardinals ended up with a big lead before a Titans comeback led to an eventual Cardinals’ win in overtime. Arizona could have avoided that by actually putting them away and taking the most points, instead of just taking (some of) the points.

A.J. Hawk breaks up a Tony Romo pass on 1st&10 from the Cowboy 23 with 13:23 to go in the second quarter.

Fox color guy Troy Aikman:

Hawk makes a nice play on that ball, and, and A.J. Hawk, I think he’s one of the more under appreciated guys around the league, and, I think a lot of expectations when he came into the league from Ohio State because where he was drafted, but you know he’s probably been their most consistent player defensively, he shows up every week, he used to be a first and second down guy and now he even stays in nickel situations.

Also be wary when “experts”, including former players like Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, make praising statements for being underrated and showing up. Pro Football Focus has A.J. Hawk as the sixth worst inside linebacker on the season. In my mid-season evaluation of inside linebacker contracts, I found his contract quality to be the third worst in the league. He’s been overrated, not underrated, Troy.

While no means a comprehensive list, that’s sans-49ers announcer material I had for the last three weeks. I’ll probably next return to announcers when their playoff assignments are locked down. In fact, after New Year’s Eve I may even pursue a fan suggestion for “The Search for the Best (& Worst!) Contract in Sports Television: NFL Announcers”. Stay tuned.


  1. Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David probably make the Bucs an above-average short-yardage defense, but Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams probably make the Panthers an above-average short-yardage offense, so 68% is probably pretty close to the Panthers true 4th&1 success rate against the Bucs. 

At last it has arrived! The final position (excluding special teams) of my mid-season search for the best contract in football, a recurring Economics and Sports Management feature. It’s the last post (until the season is over), and it focuses on the last men to beat in the defensive backfield: safeties. As always, players’ on-field performance grades come from the experts at Pro Football Focus and players’ average annual contract salaries come from the databases at Spotrac.com.

These are the Top 10 safeties this season, through Week 14 (PFF grades in parentheses):

  • 1. Devin McCourty, NE (17.3)
  • 2. Donte Whitner, SF (13.5)
  • 3. T.J. Ward, CLV (13.1)
  • 4. Will Hill, NYG (12.3)
  • 5. James Ihedigbo, BAL (11.8)
  • 6. Eric Berry, KC (10.7)
  • 7. Jairus Byrd, BUF (9.2)
  • 8. Earl Thomas, SEA (5.7)
  • 9. Kam Chancellor, SEA (5.5)
  • 10. Rashad Johnson, ARI (5.4)

I was a little surprised to see Whitner, but it looks like he’s put in the work this year after getting torched in the Super Bowl. I would guess Troy Polamalu is the most famous safety, but despite being big for Head and Shoulders he hasn’t been among the very best on the field, earning a 4.4 grade, good for 17th in the league.1 Here are the Bottom 10:

  • 74. Reshad Jones, MIA (-9.8)
  • 75. Dashon Goldson, SF (-10.9)
  • 76. Bacarri Rambo, WAS (-11)
  • 77. Thomas DeCoud, ATL (-11.2)
  • 78. Josh Evans, JAC (-11.5)
  • 79. Chris Conte, CHI (-12.2)
  • 80. Brandon Meriweather, WAS (-13.1)
  • 81. John Cyprien, JAC (-18.1)
  • 82. Brandian Ross, OAK (-21.8)
  • 83. Major Wright, CHI (-24.3)

Rough times in Chicago and Jacksonville. There are actually 85 safeties who’ve played 25% or more of their potential snaps. Will Allen was released earlier this year by the Dallas Cowboys, and Ed Reed was released by the Texans only to be signed by the Jets. I dropped them both from the analysis, although Reed’s substantial drop in pay will be worth mentioning in a bit. Among the other 83 safeties, the average grade was a -1.25, with a standard deviation of 7.32. And here are the Top 10 safety salaries (average annual salary in millions of dollars in parentheses):

  • 1. Troy Polamalu, PIT ($9.125 million)
  • 2. Eric Berry, KC ($8.341m)
  • 3. Dashon Goldson, TB ($8.25m)
  • 4. Eric Weddle, SD ($8m)
  • 5. Antrel Rolle, NYG ($7.4m)
  • 6. Reshad Jones, MIA ($7.34m)
  • 7. Michael Griffin, TEN ($7m)
  • 8. Jairus Byrd, BUF ($6.916m)
  • 9. Antoine Bethea, IND ($6.75m)
  • 10. LaRon Landry, IND ($6m)

Goldson, 9th worst safety on the year, is the third highest paid, with Jones joining him in the worst-play-best-pay clubhouse. And both Colt safeties also have performance grades below the -1.25 average. Not what you want for top dollar. Here are the Bottom 10 paid safeties:

  • 74. Antonio Allen, NYJ ($0.537m)
  • 75. Jaiquawn Jarrett, NYJ ($0.525m)
  • 76. Robert Lester, CAR & Jeff Heath, DAL ($0.495m)
  • 78. Rodney McLeod, STL ($0.481m)
  • 79. Will Hill, NYG, Tashaun Gipson, CLE, Duke Ihenacho, DEN, & Brandian Ross, OAK ($0.48m)
  • 83. M.D. Jennings, GB ($0.466m)

The average safety’s salary is $2.422 million, with a standard deviation of $2.334 million. As with many positions, salaries vary much less than performance. Now, before awarding another general manager with another award for one of the best contracts in football, I give you Ed Reed.

This past off-season Reed signed a three-year contract with the Houston Texans, averaging $5 million a year, a little less than his previous seven-year contract with the Baltimore Ravens, which averaged $5.726 million. In 2008 (as far back as PFF data goes), Reed was the 4th highest graded safety of 83 who had significant playing time; in 2009, 2nd of 88; in 2010, 9th of 85; in 2011, 12th of 87; and last season, 59th of 88. A 12-year veteran, the Ravens let him go, but the Texans paid him well above average. Through Week 10, in seven games with the Texans Reed graded at -6.3, a -0.9 per game. The current league average among safeties is roughly a -0.09; Reed was playing much worse. Houston released him (still owing him about two million dollars), and the Jets signed him to a one-year contract worth only $0.94 million. With the Jets he’s still played poorly, a -1.5 grade through four games, but his current contract is much more favorable to the Jets than his old one was to the Texans. I estimate that his current contract quality is actually 0.59, a good move for the Jets (as it was a good move for the Texans to cut him). While Reed may be one of the better known safeties, in the period of a season and a half, as his play declined sharply, teams’ willingness to pay him declined sharply as well. On-field performance matters a great deal (duh).

On to the Top 10 safety contracts this season, so far (contract quality2 in parentheses):

  • 1. Devin McCourty, NE (2.72)
  • 2. Will Hill, NYG (2.68)
  • 3. James Ihedigbo, BAL (2.49)
  • 4. T.J. Ward, CLE (2.45)
  • 5. Robert Lester, CAR (1.72)
  • 6. George Iloka, CIN (1.58)
  • 7. Donte Whitner, SF (1.37)
  • 8. Ryan Mundy, NYG & Glover Quin, DET (1.34)
  • 10. Andrew Sandejo, MIN (1.28)

Another ESPM congratulations to New England Patriots General Manager (and head coach) Bill Belichick. Those top six contracts are all top 16 performers (the first four are top five performers) who make less than the average safety. Note that Baltimore, having moved on from Reed, is getting excellent value from Ihedigbo. In a similar play from the losers of last year’s Super Bowl, the 49ers let Dashon Goldson go in free agency, keeping Whitner3 and drafting rookie Eric Reid in the first round, currently the 25th best contract with a +3.3 grade on $2.12 million. As for Goldson, well… here are the Worst 10 contracts this season:

  • 74. Morgan Burnett, GB (-1.71)
  • 75. Thomas DeCoud, ATL (-1.82)
  • 76. John Cyprien, JAC (-1.85)
  • 77. Brandon Meriweather, WAS (-1.87)
  • 78. Brandian Ross, OAK (-1.98)
  • 79. Troy Polamalu, PIT (-2.1)
  • 80. Antoine Bethea, IND (-2.33)
  • 81. Major Wright, CHI (-2.39)
  • 82. Reshad Jones, MIA (-3.28)
  • 83. Dashon Goldson, TB (-3.82)

Yup, the Bucs rewarded Goldson with the third most money among all safeties, and he’s been, in a word, bad. It is worth pointing out that while building through the draft and getting some cheap contracts and all are usually good ideas, they aren’t foolproof. Cyprien went 33rd overall to the Jaguars, the first pick of the second round. Brandian Ross and Major Wright both make well below a million dollars, but they have just been really, really bad out there.

Once again, the data suggest that there is no ironclad, golden rule to attain success in the NFL. If there was, it would be easy. And boring.


  1. Of course, his popularity may benefit the Steelers in other ways, but for now I won’t be getting into it. It’s not a simple task. 
  2. CQ = # SDs a player’s performance grade is above/below the mean – # SDs a player’s average annual salary is above/below the mean 
  3. Soon to be HITner! Oh never mind. Thank goodness, I sure thought that was dumb. 

With Texans-Jaguars, or “The Rabid Feces in a Deep Fryer Bowl” as dubbed by Cousin Sal on this week’s B.S. Report, beginning the final quarter of the NFL season tonight on Thursday Night Football, it is time to move on with my continuing series, Economics and Sports Management Presents: The Search for the Best (& Worst) Contract in Football. Today I will investigate linebackers, grouping them (per Pro Football Focus) into three groups: outside linebackers in a 3-4, outside linebackers in a 4-3, and inside linebackers.

These are the Top 5 performing 3-4 outside linebackers through Week 13, who’ve played 25% or more of their teams’ snaps (PFF grade in parentheses):

  • 1. Justin Houston, KC (31.8)
  • 2. Elvis Dumervil, BAL (23.1)
  • 3. Robert Mathis, IND (23)
  • 4. Brian Orakpo, WAS & Trent Cole, PHI (16.2)

Also of note, despite missing six games in the middle of the season when he voluntarily entered a drug and alcohol rehabilitation facility, Aldon Smith of the San Francisco 49ers is tenth with a 10.3 grade. And these are the Bottom 5:

  • 37. Andy Mulumba, GB & Barkevious Mingo, CLE (-7.2)
  • 39. Quinton Coples, NYJ (-7.3)
  • 40. Mike Neal, GB (-8.6)
  • 41. Brooks Reed, HOU (-17.6)

Houston is firmly alone at the top, Reed is firmly alone at the bottom, and the average grade is a 4.2, with a standard deviation of 10.35. Here are the Top 5 paid 3-4 outside linebackers (average annual salary from Spotrac.com, in millions of dollars, in parentheses):

  • 1. Mario Williams, BUF ($16 million)
  • 2. Clay Matthews, GB ($11.628m)
  • 3. Tamba Hali, KC ($11.5m)
  • 4. Terrell Suggs, BAL ($10.417)
  • 5. Lamarr Woodley, PIT ($10.25)

None of these guys show up as worst performers, but none of them made the Top 5 either. As for the Bottom 5:

  • 37. Justin Houston, KC ($0.697m)
  • 38. Corey Lemonier, SF ($0.676m)
  • 39. Thomas Keiser, SD ($0.555m)
  • 40. Pernell McPhee, BAL ($0.546m)
  • 41. Andy Mulumba, GB ($0.497)

Houston, a third round pick in the 2011 draft, is one of the least paid outside linebackers among the league’s 3-4 defenses, yet has actually played the best this season. A good investment by the Chiefs. The average salary is $4 million, with a standard deviation of $3.845 million. Note that the $4 million average is about the same as the 4-3 defensive ends covered on Tuesday, who averaged $4.084 million, while 3-4 defensive ends averaged (“only”) $2.583 million.

You should not be surprised to see that as quarterbacks are the most expensive players, the most expensive defenders are those whose job it is to get to the quarterback. 3-4 linebackers, though they start the play standing up, have more in common with 4-3 defensive ends than with 4-3 outside linebackers. And among 3-4 linebackers, these are the Top 5 contracts (contract quality in parentheses):

  • 1. Justin Houston, KC (3.53)
  • 2. Brian Orakpo, WAS (1.68)
  • 3. Elvis Dumervil, BAL (1.51)
  • 4. Jerry Hughes, BUF (1.35)
  • 5. Jabaal Sheard, CLE (1.07)

And Houston leads by a mile! A second congratulations to Chiefs General Manager John Dorsey, who also has gotten the best fullback value this season out of Anthony Sherman. Brian Orakpo, on the last year of his rookie contract, also makes an appearance. The following are the Worst 5 contracts (so far):

  • 37. Barkevious Mingo, CLE (-1.12)
  • 38. Brooks Reed, HOU (-1.37)
  • 39. Paul Kruger, CLE (-1.52)
  • 40. Clay Matthews, GB (-2.35)
  • 41. Mario Williams, BUF (-2.49)

Mingo is a rookie, so he may improve, but he also comes pretty cheap, so it is discouraging to see him so far down. Most likely Clay Matthews would not be there if he had not missed four games in the middle of the season, but then in the eight games he has played he has only earned a 0.4 grade. Perhaps the injury is lingering. Mario Williams makes an average of $16 million a year. He does have the ninth best grade (10.7). Rams’ 4-3 defensive end Robert Quinn, excelling at a similar role, is worth approximately $19.5 million, based on his play this season. That is what you get when you outperform your position’s average grade by an incredible 52.56 units, and Williams needs to (out)perform at a similar level. A good, even a great performance just is not worth that much.

Moving onto the other defenses in the league, here are the Top 5 performing 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 1. Von Miller, DEN (30.9)
  • 2. Lavonte David, TB (16.6)
  • 3. Vontaze Burfict, CIN (15.8)
  • 4. Malcolm Smith, SEA (10.9)
  • 5. James Harrison, CIN (10.2)

Von Miller missed six games with a suspension. In half the games, he has put up twice the numbers of second-best Lavonte David. Offensive tackles beware! But for that suspension, he might have challenged J.J. Watt for Mr. Being-So-Much-Better-Than-Everyone-Else. As it is, still an impressive season, with games remaining. Here are the Bottom 5 performing 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 29. Bruce Carter, DAL (-8.6)
  • 30. JoLonn Dunbar, STL (-9.1)
  • 31. Philip Wheeler, MIA (-9.5)
  • 32. James Anderson, CHI (-12.1)
  • 33. Chad Greenway, MIN (-18.3)

The average grade is 0.8, with a standard deviation of 9.66. All positions have varied more in performance than pay, but that is some serious variation. Also, note Chad Greenway, who is comfortably the worst in the league. Just hang on to that for a moment, as we see the Top 5 paid 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 1. Chad Greenway, MIN ($8.12m)
  • 2. Thomas Davis, CAR ($7.3m)
  • 3. Jerod Mayo, NE ($7.121m)
  • 4. Lance Briggs, CHI ($5.833m)
  • 5. Von Miller, DEN ($5.25m)

Yup, Greenway is right at the top, by a cushy $1 million (almost). Oh dear. Greenway is pretty interesting. His third year in the league, 2008, he was PFF’s fourth-ranked out of 55 4-3 outside linebackers. In 2009, he was ninth of 54; in 2010, fifth of 41; in 2011, 32nd of 45 and went to the Pro Bowl (I am not making this up); and before last season signed his current contract, the most expensive among all 4-3 outside linebackers, before ranking 21st of 43 and going to the Pro Bowl again AND making the All-Pro second team. (Seriously, not making this up. Look it up.) The Vikings surely got a great deal on his rookie contract before making him the top paid man at his position and seeing his play slip. There could be a lot of reasons for this, including the possibility that the Vikings are not overpaying him but are rather reaping other benefits (he must be popular after making a name for himself, still going to the Pro Bowl and all) from having him on their roster. But for now, only pay and performance matter.1 Here are the Bottom 5 paid 4-3 outside linebackers:

  • 29. Jacquian Williams, NYG ($0.53m)
  • 30. Malcolm Smith, SEA ($0.521m)
  • 31. Joplo Bartu, ATL & Paul Worrilow, ATL ($0.495m)
  • 33. Vontaze Burfict, CIN ($0.48m)

The average salary is $2.242 million, with a standard deviation of $2.201 million. That is about half their 3-4 counterparts, as 4-3 guys are usually not responsible for generating a pass rush. And here are the Top 5 contracts:

  • 1. Vontaze Burfict, CIN (2.35)
  • 2. Lavonte David, TB (2.26)
  • 3. Malcolm Smith, SEA (1.83)
  • 4. Von Miller, DEN (1.75)
  • 5. K.J. Wright, SEA (1.3)

Congratulations to Bengals General Manager Mike Brown! He, too, has two players in the running for best value at their position, second-year man Burfict being alongside rookie running back Giovani Bernard. Note that despite his fifth highest salary, and despite missing six games, Miller’s contract is still a steal for the Broncos. Here are the Bottom 5 contracts:

  • 29. Lance Briggs, CHI (-1.46)
  • 30. Thomas Davis, CAR (-1.61)
  • 31. Philip Wheeler, MIA (-2.41)
  • 32. Jerod Mayo, NE (-2.89)
  • 33. Chad Greenway, MIN (-4.65)

Obviously, after pulling a Flacco, Greenway was destined for the bottom. In fact, Greenway is only the second player to pull a “Full Flacco” by being the absolute most paid and the absolute worst player on the field, among his position. Enough of that, onto inside linebackers!

Top 5 performing inside linebackers:

  • 1. Patrick Willis, SF (14.6)
  • 2. Stephen Tulloch, DET (13.3)
  • 3. Derrick Johnson, KC (12.5)
  • 4. Brandon Spikes, NE (11.1)
  • 5. NaVorro Bowman, SF (8.3)

As a 49er fan, I know Willis is our most expensive player, and Bowman is not far behind after signing an extension last season. I definitely recall a pundit or too wondering why the 49ers were spending so much at inside linebacker when, with the passing game still becoming more and more featured, rushing the quarterback from the edge seemed the way to adapt. Still, with the 49ers getting good value from their outside guys, if they are going to spend a lot on their inside guys, at least Willis and Bowman are the best in the league. Here are the Bottom 5:

  • 48. DeMeco Ryans, PHI (-15)
  • 49. Mychal Kendricks, PHI (-15.7)
  • 50. Moise Fokou, TEN (-15.8)
  • 51. Craig Robertson, CLE (-16.2)
  • 52. London Fletcher, WAS (-21.4)

The average grade is a -3.31, with a standard deviation of 8.03. That is the lowest average grade of any position so far. Apparently it has been a rough year for inside linebackers. Well, at least on the field. As for the negotiating room, here are the Top 5 paid inside linebackers:

  • 1. David Harris, NYJ ($9m)
  • 2. Jon Beason, NYG ($8.822m)
  • 3. D’Qwell Jackson, CLE ($8.5m)
  • 4. Lawrence Timmons, PIT ($8.333m)
  • 5. James Laurinaitis, STL ($8.3m)

So while the 49ers pay Willis and Bowman a lot (about $7 and $6 million, respectively), they somehow escaped making them the most paid, I suspect by resigning them in the middle of the season, well before their current contracts were up.2 Here are the Bottom 5 paid inside linebackers:

  • 48. Vince Williams, PIT ($0.56m)
  • 49. Jerrell Freeman, IND ($0.493m)
  • 50. Josh Bynes, BAL ($0.48m)
  • 51. Spencer Paysinger, NYG ($0.466m)
  • 52. Craig Robertson, CLE ($0.435m)

The average salary is $3.218 million, with a standard deviation $2.996 million. How strange, that is right in between the two types of outside linebackers. And who is getting the most value?

The Top 5 inside linebacker contracts (so far):

  • 1. Brandon Spikes, NE (2.6)
  • 2. Sean Lee, DAL (2.14)
  • 3. Josh Bynes, BAL (1.91)
  • 4. Daryl Smith, BAL (1.77)
  • 5. Kiko Alonso, BUF (1.76)

Congratulations to Bill Belichick, General Manager (and coach) of the New England Patriots. Spikes, Lee, and the rookie Alonso are all still on their rookie deals, while Bynes and Smith are veterans. And here are the Bottom 5 contracts:

  • 48. Jon Beason, NYG (-1.97)
  • 49. Paul Posluszny, JAC (-2.14)
  • 50. A.J. Hawk, GB (-2.59)
  • 51. London Fletcher, WAS (-2.97)
  • 52. DeMeco Ryans, PHI (-3.05)

And that is it for linebackers! The remaining defensive positions (cornerbacks and safeties) will be up next week.


  1. Measuring things like “popularity” and being “a good guy in the locker room” is really difficult. Not all players have a Twitter account for people to follow; mentions in the newspaper can be bad or good; players are paid separately for any commercials they appear in. I have tried to acquire jersey sales and pro bowl vote tallies for every player in the league before (not just the Top 5 or Top 10 you see in the news), and while surely somewhere they exist, it may be impossible. If anyone knows how to obtain those figures, I would LOVE to have them. 
  2. SPOILER, while not making the top five, Willis and Bowman do in fact both have positive contract qualities, with a 0.75 and 0.31, respectively. 
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