The 2014 FIFA World Cup begins in just over 24 hours when host Brazil takes on Croatia. Throughout the tournament Crossroads will be providing supplemental gambling material, updated daily, via the most excellent websites sportsbook.ag and fivethirtyeight.com.
Nate Silver and Co. posted one piece comparing the probabilities implied by their Soccer Power Index to those implied by the betting market, on each team’s chances of winning it all. Which is awesome, but come on FiveThirtyEight, what about the games themselves? We degenerates have it hard enough as it is without having to personally check every line with your own prediction. Therefore, Crossroads is proud to provide the 2014 FIFA World Cup Gambler’s Guide.
The gambling guide will cover every 90 minute game line in the opening round, comparing the break even percentage needed to cash in Vegas with Nate Silver’s Soccer Power Index estimations. If Nate Silver thinks a result is more likely than other gamblers, you may want to consider betting “against” the market to cash in that positive expected value. For more on Silver’s algorithm (which actually is kinda complicated), click here. For even more, click here. And to view the guide in its own window, click here.
And that is all for now. Enjoy!