I Suck at Gambling NFL

I Suck at Gambling- NFL Week 17, 2013

Last Week: 10-6. My entire life: 45-41-3.

Got lucky last week! And now we have the final slate of the 2013 regular season. I’ll be guessing foolishly, inappropriately applying the contextual data I posted yesterday for all 32 teams, and probably forgetting to figure out which teams are not playing their starters. Let’s do it! As always, lines from; home team in CAPS.

FALCONS (+6.5) over Panthers

This is just wrong. But I can’t see why the Falcons wouldn’t try to win this game, after damn near beating the 49ers last week. Steve Smith is out, Atlanta’s rush defense isn’t bad, Matt Ryan is still good, and they want to salvage something from this season, don’t they? Also Tony Gonzalez final game potential? I’m crazy, I know.

TITANS (-7) over Texans

On the road, surely the Texans lock up the #1 pick, right?

STEELERS (-7) over Browns

Pittsburgh, at home, to keep their playoff hopes alive? It’s an early game, so it should be meaningful for at least the first half? Plus, the Browns know how to play respectably and still lose to keep their draft prospects strong.

GIANTS (-3.5) over the Washington D.C. Football Team

I think they can do this at home… right? What an ick game… ick.

Ravens (+6.5) over BENGALS

It just seems like the Ravens to be kinda scummy like that…

Jaguars (+11) over COLTS

Jacksonville’s been lucky to get to four wins, but so have the Colts to get to 10. I do think they’ll get to 11, but too many points. Gus Bradley’s staying in Jacksonville, and the Jags want to impress him (maybe).

DOLPHINS (-5.5) over Jets

The Jets are terrible, and the Dolphins need this game. Of course, that logic failed when applied to the Detroit Lions, so who knows? Speaking of which,

Lions (+3) over VIKINGS

First of all, is that the saddest line of the season?1 Second of all, is this the saddest headline of the season? Whatever Lions, I IRRATIONALLY BELIEVE IN YOU! Also, hire a new coach. Schwartz is a jerk.

Packers (-3) over BEARS

I think I would prefer the Bears to win.2 But they’ve put up similar numbers to that Packers team… that Packers team without Aaron Rodgers for seven games. That Aaron Rodgers who is definitively returning to the lineup this week. So…

PATRIOTS (-9) over Bills

Buffalo got close way back in Week 1, at home. Don’t think they do it again, even with all the Pats’ injuries.

Bucs (+13) over SAINTS

Too many points for the Saints…

Broncos (-13) over RAIDERS

But not for the Broncos? Don’t like double-digit favorites on the road, but they play at the same time as the Patriots, so Manning ought to be good for 42 first half points, right?

CARDINALS (0) over 49ers

A straight pick’em! If the Packers win, they will be the four seed. In which case, I want the 49ers to be the six seed, right? Our path is murkier, most likely we’ll be playing on the road somewhere, and whatever. The Cardinals, meanwhile, just want a shot, and at the very least to prove that they belong, that last week in Seattle wasn’t a fluke. Will be interesting to see if Michael Crabtree still has Patrick Peterson’s number.

CHARGERS (-9) over Chiefs

The Chiefs are the five seed. No matter what. Moving on.

SEAHAWKS (-11.5) over Rams

The Rams are good too, but not quite as good as the Cardinals. And I think the Hawks find themselves after last week.

Eagles (-7) over COWBOYS

Without Romo, I just don’t see it. But then, how did the Cowboys defense do so well last time?

Week 17 is in the books! Now I’ve got to get outside in this most excellent Chicago weather (36 degrees!) before it’s too late. Adios.

  1. I asked my friend, he went with the Broncos as 28 point favorites at home against the Jaguars. Perhaps. The Broncos didn’t even come close to covering that, though. 
  2. Do I prefer a 49ers first-round trip to Lambeau, or Soldier Field? (Or possibly Lincoln Financial?) I think Soldier Field, right? We’ve beaten the Packers three times in a row; they’ve got to be fed up, not to mention just due to beat us.