What’s More Impressive? The Cardinals’ Win in Seattle vs. The Jets’ 7 Wins This Season

Two things have been on my mind since yesterday’s NFL action. One, can any team replicate the Arizona Cardinals’ shocking success in Seattle, where they won 17-10 as nine-point underdogs? Two, how is it possible the New York Jets can still finish without a losing record? How did they get to seven wins heading into their final game? As these things aren’t really related at all, I made them related in this post, another feature of “What’s More Impressive?“.

A quick rundown of some numbers I’ll be using to answer:

  • DVOA stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Football Outsiders created it to determine relative team strength. The idea is that there are only 16 games a season, a small sample to rank teams on. But there are lots of plays in a season, usually more than a hundred every game, so Football Outsiders looks at how successful a team is on an average play, and then compares that to a league-wide average, using percentages. Feel free to read more.
  • PW% stands for Pythagorean Winning Percentage. This uses the idea that the margin of victory (or defeat) is a significant indicator of team strength, especially over the course of the season. The formula is (Points Scored ^ 2.37) / {(Points Scored ^ 2.37)+(Points Allowed ^ 2.37)}.
  • Point spreads have long been used by Las Vegas casinos. They’re designed to get even action on both sides. Most would bet that the Broncos would beat the Texans, so Vegas increases payouts for betting that the Broncos will win by, say, 10.5 points (the line for yesterday’s game). Casinos frequently adjust spreads to ensure that they see half the action on each side. The more a team is favored, the better their chances are of winning outright. (Duh.)
  • HFA stands for Home Field Advantage. In a recent column on Grantland, Bill Barnwell examined a team’s average margin of victory in its current stadium, and compared that margin to their average margin of victory (or defeat) on the road, going back through the 2002 season. The difference between the two average margins, divided by two, is historically the expected “extra” points for the home team, relative to a neutral site.

Let’s start with the Cardinals. They’ve been pretty good this year, sure. They were 9-5 heading into yesterday’s game, still alive for an NFC Wildcard berth. They have been cursed by their company; the league-leading 12-3 Seahawks, as well as the 10-4 49ers, are also in the NFC West division. They had lost to them each once already, heading into Week 16. They’d beaten the Lions (that meant something for most of the season), and the Panthers (who clinched a playoff spot yesterday), and the Colts (who clinched last week), but all at home. The Cardinals were 6-1 at home, and 3-4 on the road, and that home loss came to… the Seahawks. Second-year Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson was a perfect 14-0 at home heading into yesterday. The Seahawks have looked dominant all year, and, well, unbeatable at home.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

  • Record: 10-5 (66.57%, tied for 7th); Seahawks’ Record: 12-3 (80%, tied for 1st)
  • DVOA (through Week 15): 10.9% (10th); Seahawks’ DVOA: 40.4% (1st)
  • PW%: 60.29% (9th); Seahaw’s PW%: 79.17%% (1st)
  • Record of nine-point underdogs (since 2003): 28-88 (24.1%)
  • Seattle’s HFA (since 2002): 5.2 points/game (1st)
  • Interceptions Thrown By Carson Palmer: 4 (4!!!)

1 2 Here’s the thing: I was considering taking the points in this game, but ultimately decided the Seahawks were just too good. Worst case scenario, Arizona would hang around, but Seattle would eventually cover (see: Broncos-Texans). But if you had guaranteed to me that Carson Palmer would throw four interceptions, I would have put my life savings on Seattle (or, at least some real money). I can’t believe they won with him throwing four picks. I know they did it with a really, really good defensive performance, aided by an injured Seahawk offensive line, but, like, how did they do that?

As for the Jets, they’ve been, uhh, bad. They now have seven wins (!), five of which are against teams with 5-10 records or worse.3 They lost by 25 to the Titans. (Yes, the Titans.) They lost by 40 to the Bengals. (Yes, 40.) They beat the Bills by seven… and later lost to them by 23. But they’re now 6-2 at home, 1-6 on the road, and a remarkable 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That includes (home) victories over the Patriots by three points4 and the Saints by six points. The thing is that “games decided by a touchdown or less” suggest more luck rather than skill. We love fitting narratives to teams, players, and coaches about how they always pull it out, but a team’s record in close games converges to .500 the more close games they play. The Jets flipped a coin six times and got five victories back. What else suggests the Jets have been lucky?

Jet’s Victories (TB, BUF, @ATL, NE, NO, OAK, CLE)

  • Record: 7-8 (46.67%, tied for 18th); Record of Defeated Opponents: 41-64 (39.05%)
  • DVOA (through Week 15): -13.8% (26th); Average DVOA of Defeated Opponents: -5.27% (Average DVOA Rank of Defeated Opponents: 19.4)
  • PW%: 30.79% (30th); Average PW% of Defeated Opponents: 44.88% (Average PW% Rank of Defeated Opponents: 19.9)
  • Record of teams with Jets’ spread (since 2003) in Jets’ victories: 485-687-1 (41.4%)

That last number is the sum record of teams in match-ups similar to the Jets in their victories, in Vegas’ eyes. The Jets were four-point underdogs in their Week 1 victory over Tampa Bay, and historically four point underdogs have gone 45-91 (straight up, not against the spread). In their Week 3 win over Buffalo, the Jets were 2.5-point favorites, who’ve gone 66-63, etc. Most of the teams the Jets have beaten were bad. But they’re still surprising wins, given that the Jets have seemed even worse (except for, you know, the whole “winning” technicality). What’s more impressive?

Cardinals’ One Win @SEA vs. Jets’ Seven Wins (TB, BUF, @ATL, NE, NO, OAK, CLE)

  • Winning % Gap Between Competition: Cardinals -14.3%; Jets +7.62%
  • DVOA Gap: Cardinals -29.5% (9 ranks); Jets -8.53% (6.6 ranks)
  • PW% Gap: Cardinals -18.88% (8 ranks); Jets -14.09% (10.1 ranks)
  • Historical Winning % Given the Same Spread: Cardinals 24.1%; Jets 41.4%

I feel compelled to declare the New York Jets’ 7-8 record at this point (much) more impressive than the Cardinals’ road victory over the Seahawks, primarily for two reasons. One, ironically this gives the Cardinals more credit. I think they’re a good team, and while I don’t think they’d win in Seattle every time (more like two or three out of ten), this wasn’t a fluke. Two, the Jets have pulled off a bunch of unlikely wins. While the probability of a Jets win in any single one of those games maybe wasn’t as low as the Cardinals’ in Seattle, winning all of them is remarkable.5 Using Vegas spreads, for instance, there was a 24.1% chance the Cardinals won, and on average a 41.4% chance the Jets did. But the Jets won seven times. With an expected winning percentage of 41.4%, the odds you go 7-0 are 0.2%!6 And I think that’s damn impressive.


  1.  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-15-dvoa-ratings 
  2.  http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/odds-history/results/ 
  3. Actually, the Falcons are 5-9. If they beat the 49ers tonight, they would be 6-9. But still. 
  4. Perhaps you recall, this was a bizarre game where the Jets game-winning field goal in overtime actually missed, but then there was some phantom penalty no one had ever heard of on the Patriots, and the Jets got to kick again, from much closer. 
  5. The games are statistically independent, that is, the Jets are a football team with strengths and weaknesses in their match-ups with opponents, and that the outcome of a particular game does not affect the probability (strengths and weaknesses) of an outcome of any other game. 
  6. (414/1000)^7 
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