I Suck at Gambling- NFL Week 14, 2013

Last Week: 8-7-1. My entire life: 20-21-2.

The (NFL) week has started most excellently. Last night I finished watching season 4 of Archer, shortly after the Jaguars covered +3 against the Texans, winning outright for the first time at home since November 25th… 2012. (BOOM!) I don’t even want to guess how many headlines across east Texas already said this, but Houston, we have a problem. A bunch of problems. And as I’m going to make foolish predictions anyway, I’m going to say the Texans take a dose of the ole’ improve-quarterback-play-and-coaching-amid-the-backdrop-of-an-already-talented-team, a la the 2011 49ers and the 2013 Chiefs, and make the playoffs next season. As for this one, here are my Week 14 picks. Lines from Sportsbook.com; home team in CAPS.

JAGUARS (+3) over Texans

That went surprisingly well!

The Kansas City Football Team (-3.5) over THE WASHINGTON D.C. FOOTBALL TEAM

I’m torn here, because Brian Burke actually gave Washington a slight edge, and Bill Simmons pointed out that Kansas City has pretty much nothing at all to play for, being assured of not catching Denver and not getting caught by anyone else for the five seed. I have RGIII in fantasy, but then I also have KC’s defense and special teams. My opponent has Alex Smith at quarterback, but Fred Davis at tight end. I seem to recall the 2011 Alex-Smith-led 49ers winning in D.C, so that’s that.

RAVENS (-7) over Vikings

I made a promise to not take the Vikings on the road for the rest of the season.

Browns (+13) over PATRIOTS

What’s less impressive, the Browns running game or the Patriots run defense? The Browns quarterback situation or the Patriots wide receiver situation? Anyway, I’m reading this as “Josh Gordon (+13) over AQIB TALIB”, and I feel a little better.

Raiders (+2.5) over JETS

As I’ve mentioned, the Jets’ point differential indicates that their record is way, way better than it should be.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Colts

I wonder how much this line would be if we could make them swap quarterbacks?

EAGLES (-3) over Lions

Doesn’t everybody know this season is going to crush Chicago Bears fans’ hopes for the playoffs in the most depressing way imaginable? There’s no drama if Bears fans don’t have to see themselves with the same record as the Lions but actually a game behind because they lost to them twice. Plus it could even give some hope to Packers fans! Come on Vegas! Easy money.

STEELERS (-3.5) over Dolphins

Again, it’s about the drama. Drama, when 10 AFC teams still have a hope come Week 17.

BUCS (-3) over Bills

Some home rookie quarterback who could be good over some away rookie quarterback who could be good.

Titans (+13) over BRONCOS

Yeah…

CARDINALS (-6) over Rams

Yeah…

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants

Yeah… wait, it’s the Philip Rivers-Eli Manning revenge bowl!

Seahawks (+2.5) over 49ers

At last! The 49ers have some definite advantages: an extra day of rest with the Seahawks playing on Monday night, the potential for a Seahawks letdown after a super-hyped blowout against the Saints, being good despite not doing anything to have the Seahawks take us seriously the last two times we played, having a little more to play for as the Seahawks have leads of three games in the division and two in the conference with only four games left, elite offensive tackle Joe Staley might actually play a week after spraining his MCL, and Jim Harbaugh’s dislike of Pete Carroll. BUT normally when we play the Seahawks, someone good on the 49ers gets injured in the first half and can’t return (last time it was Vernon Davis and Eric Reid), so if Staley does play, how long does he last? Also guard Mike Iupati is still out.

SAINTS (-3.5) over Panthers

If we believe the Saints are down but not out (I do), then they’ve got to be pretty pissed off, and looking to set the record straight with the national television audience.

Cowboys (-1) over BEARS

After watching Detroit open the door on Sunday, losing on Monday night seems the only way to go for Bears fans.

And that’s what’s happening Week 14. You may notice a game is missing. Where’s the Falcons at the Packers? Staying the hell out of casino books until we know whether Aaron Rodgers is playing. You remember, Aaron Rodgers, the guy who swung a game’s line by nine points earlier this season when the Packers announced he was out. Yeah. That guy.

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