I Suck at Gambling- NFL Week 13, 2013

Last week: 7-6! My entire life: 12-14-1.

Since I started I’ve been wimping out easing in to picking the Thursday game. Well no more. Thanksgiving is upon us, and that means three whole games. I can’t be missing out on that. I was quite pleased with my improvement last week, getting two five point underdogs who won outright in the Bucs and Chargers. I have thoroughly enjoyed staking my claim to picks, which is to say that Broncos-Patriots game was an even wilder ride, having taken the Patriots at +2.5. (Awww, yeah.)

Also I’ve decided to add a little method to the madness this week, using Pythagorean Winning Percentage (henceforth PWP). It factors in strength of victory (or weakness of defeat) to get an idea of which teams have been lucky (narrow wins, big losses) and unlucky (big wins, narrow losses). Like anything else, its relevance should already be factored into the spread, but I don’t care. The formula is (Points Scored ^ 2.37) / [(Points Scored ^ 2.37)+(Points Allowed ^ 2.37)]. And here we go!

Lines from Sportsbook.com; home team in CAPS.

LIONS (-6.5) over Packers

The Lions, sure. By a touchdown? Well… remember when the Packers tied the Vikings (PWP 34.9%, eighth worst in league) only four days ago? Five whole quarters of football. Four days ago. Yes, I remember what Matt Flynn did the last time he played the Lions, and no, I don’t care.

COWBOYS (-9) over Raiders

Actually, the Raiders aren’t one of the very worst teams this season. They’re just one of the worst (PWP 36.5%, ninth worst).

RAVENS (-2.5) over Steelers

Looks pretty even. Both teams 5-6. Ravens lost by a field goal in Pittsburgh. So they gotta’ win by three this time right? Baltimore’s PWP: 53.2%, 13th; Pittsburgh’s: 46.9%, 13th worst. Sold.

COLTS (-4.5) over Titans

Am I going to take all the home favorites? Maybe? But this is what the Colts do, right, match their competition? Play well against good teams/division rivals and badly against bad teams from the NFC? Also, as I’ve been telling pretty much everyone, Andrew Luck loves playing Settlers of Catan. When you can, you back the player who loves playing Settlers of Catan.

Jaguars (+7) over BROWNS

The Jaguars are really, really bad. Their PWP is 12.4%, last in the league by a sound margin. But Cleveland’s is only 34.7% (seventh worst), also God hates Cleveland. Now firmly out of the playoff picture, they’ve got to secure those draft picks. And hey, both of the Jags’ wins came on the road. Plus what’s the point of looking up statistics if you’re not going to laugh in their face and completely ignore them?

Bucs (+8) over PANTHERS

I think the Bucs are pissed. Carolina’s PWP of 78.1% is tied for tops in the league, but I thought they might be ready for a let down game last week and they squeaked out a win in Miami. Maybe they won’t take a division rival lightly, but… I think the Bucs are pissed.

VIKINGS (+1) over Bears

I can’t believe I just did that. But I also can’t believe the Bears run defense. Or Adrian Peterson.

Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES

Cardinals’ PWP: 57.7%, ninth in the league. Eagles stand at 53.5%, good for 12th. Betting on a good game from Carson Palmer? (Thinking…) I’ve done stupider things.

Dolphins (-2) over JETS

The Jets are just above the Jaguars, with a PWP of 26.3%. The Dolphins are only 46%, 12th worst, but come on. I just Googled “Jets starting quarterback”. You can do it too. The results speak for themselves.

TEXANS (+9) over Patriots

Houston is, like, super bad, but getting nine points at home? Plus the Patriots also played a fifth quarter last week, and it was huge game with a lot of hype, and they’ve outperformed by a win so far this season and the Texans have under performed by a win, so I gotta’ bet on that regression.

BILLS (-3.5) over Falcons

I can’t think of anything the Falcons have going for them. … I really can’t.

49ERS (-9) over Rams

Hmmmmm. Well, that team tied with the Panthers for tops in PWP? That would be my 49ers with a 78.1%, current holders of the league’s unluckiest record, under performing by 1.59 wins.

CHIEFS (+5.5) over Broncos

Denver’s PWP is 71.8%, good for sixth. But Kansas City’s is 72.6%, good for third! Also they’re at home this time, and maybe the Broncos are a little frazzled without their head coach and after blowing it in New England? Taking the points.

CHARGERS (-1.5) over Bengals

How come the 49ers couldn’t find anyone as good as Keenan Allen with the A.J. Jenkins pick? (Yes, from different drafts. But it still hurts.)

Giants (-1.5) over Redskins

The Giants started the season terribly, while the Redskins have consistently been terrible. For what it’s worth, Washington’s PWP is 33.3%, fifth worst, and New York’s is 34.3%, sixth worst. Ugh. Does the Red Zone channel have to include this game? Remember a year ago when RGIII was the most exciting player in football? Ugh.

Saints (+6) over SEAHAWKS

The Saints are getting six points? Or is that the number of Seahawks who’ve been busted for illicit drug use? I’m confused. Did you know that even with a PWP of 72%, fifth overall, the Seahawks have two more wins than they “should”? And that the Saints PWP of 74% is good for third in the league? Also, I don’t remember exactly, but something about this being the best two records of teams to face off on Monday Night Football this late in the season since the 199-… 4 Giants and 49ers? 1995? Whatever. I demand an Immaculate Reception, Music City Miracle, and of course another Toucherception or I’ll be disappointed.

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