I Suck at Gambling- NFL Week 12, 2013

Last week: a humbling 5-8-1. My entire life: also a humbling 5-8-1.

So I’ve got some work to do. By far the most devastating defeat was the Saints failing to cover -3.5 in their three point victory over my 49ers. I was so saddened that I crawled under my 49ers throw blanket and wept for nearly an hour, swearing off football for all time, before getting bored and watching Sunday Night Football. Even more devastating was this text I got from an old friend:

Colin, I have a few questions for you.

1. Is there a difference between Sunday and Monday night football other than the day of the week.

2. Does the quarterback do anything but call the plays.

3. Why does Texas live up to its stereotypes?

I ignored this text for three hours while I watched Monday Night Football, idly wondering why I watched football, and promptly being rewarded with an an hour’s worth of “WASN’T THAT PASS INTERFERENCE” tweets. My Pats-fan friend, however, seemed beyond grief. She didn’t even text me.

SO, with devastation done with for good (right?), I’m trying some Week 12 picks. Lines from Sportsbook.com; home team in CAPS.

Bucs (+8.5) over LIONS

Is Tampa Bay ever going to start using the best cornerback in the NFL, whom they paid millions and millions for in the off-season, to take away the other team’s best wide receiver? I’m guessing no at this point? He might still be sorta injured or something? Even so, the Bucs have lost some close games, have a good defense, and remember that time Mike Glennon tore the Seahawks best secondary in the league to shreds for half a game?

TEXANS (-10) over Jaguars

I think every time the Jaguars have a 3&out, the Texans should have to remove one defender from the field, but it can’t be J.J. Watt. I want to see the Jaguars offense play J.J. Watt. WHAT IS THE LINE FOR THAT, VEGAS? And wouldn’t you still take J.J. Watt? Or even just J.J. Watt’s elbow brace?

PACKERS (-5) over Vikings

The Vikings have a win in London over the Steelers (average expected winning percentage 42.6%) and at home over the Redskins (36.5%). Also I just looked at their schedule and at the very least will not be taking them on the road for the rest of the season.

Chargers (+5) over CHIEFS

Yyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Panthers (-4.5) over DOLPHINS

All of the makings of a let down game for the Panthers… but how long it takes to read that statement is approximately how much time Ryan Tannehill has to throw when he drops back to pass.

BROWNS (-1) over Steelers

Am I missing something? I know the Steelers have played a little better, but unless Brandon Weeden gets involved… oh right. God hates Cleveland. Damn it.

Bears (+1) over RAMS

Josh McCown over Kellen Clemons. Brandon Marshall over Chris Givens. Devin Hester over Tavon Austin. Martellus Bennett over Jared Cook. And let’s forget about that whole “defense” thing.

RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets

The Jets have a point differential of a 3-7 team. They’re 5-5. When given the opportunity to bet on regression to the mean, bet on regression to the mean.

Titans (-1) over RAIDERS

Something about how 46.3% of the money the Raiders are spending this season goes to players who no longer play for the Raiders.

CARDINALS (-2.5) over Colts

The beauty of seeing the Colts beat the 49ers and Seahawks and lose to the Rams and Cardinals is just too wonderful to pass up.

GIANTS (-2.5) over Cowboys

I really wanted to take the Cowboys here, but I am starting Tony Romo in fantasy this week, so…

PATRIOTS (+2.5) over Broncos

Forecast for Foxborough, MA for the weekend.

49ers (-6.5) over Redskins

If they 49ers keep, or maybe regain at this point, their focus, they’re in good shape. Will they? EEEEEeeeeeehhhhhhhhhh I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

I suck at gambling! Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to find people to help me carry a cream soda keg up three floors. Freakin’ weekend ‘errbody.

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